NBA games

PHX @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
115108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX26272834115
NO23253228108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home NO
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 36 30 9 5
Mark Williams S 27 24 13 2
Collin Gillespie S 35 16 3 9
Dillon Brooks S 33 14 3 1
Ryan Dunn 21 9 8 1
Oso Ighodaro 21 6 5 1
Rasheer Fleming 10 6 1 0
Jordan Goodwin 20 4 6 2
Jamaree Bouyea 12 3 2 2
Royce O'Neale S 25 3 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson 28 20 8 6
Trey Murphy III S 36 19 3 3
Jordan Poole 31 19 5 6
Jose Alvarado 25 11 2 2
Jeremiah Fears S 17 9 3 1
Saddiq Bey S 31 9 4 1
Yves Missi 18 7 3 0
Derik Queen S 20 7 7 2
Bryce McGowens S 22 4 0 1
Karlo Matkovic 9 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trey Murphy III · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Trey Murphy III makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Derik Queen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Brooks PHX
15%
2 Jeremiah Fears NO
13%
3 Derik Queen NO
12%
4 Saddiq Bey NO
11%
5 Mark Williams PHX
11%
6 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
7 Devin Booker PHX
10%
8 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
9 Bryce McGowens NO
7%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
45%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 24.5 4.6 6.6
2 Trey Murphy III NO 23.6 6.1 4.4
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 22.6 3.7 2.7
4 Zion Williamson NO 22.0 5.8 3.5
5 Derik Queen NO 18.4 8.5 5.8
6 Saddiq Bey NO 17.8 6.0 2.3
7 Jordan Poole NO 17.3 2.4 3.8
8 Collin Gillespie PHX 17.2 4.1 5.2
9 Jeremiah Fears NO 15.1 4.2 4.2
10 Mark Williams PHX 13.0 8.3 1.8
11 Bryce McGowens NO 11.0 3.4 1.9
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.1 4.6 3.3
13 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.9 3.1 2.2
14 Jose Alvarado NO 8.4 2.8 3.9
15 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 8.1 2.7 1.9
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 7.1 5.8 2.2
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.5 4.3 2.1
18 Micah Peavy NO 5.6 2.2 1.0
19 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.7 1.6 0.7
20 Karlo Matkovic NO 4.7 3.8 0.9
21 Yves Missi NO 4.7 5.0 1.0
22 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.9 1.8 0.7
23 Kevon Looney NO 2.6 2.8 0.8
24 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.6 1.8 0.7
25 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.5 1.8 0.6
26 Nick Richards PHX 2.3 2.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.