NBA games

MIL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
104–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL35153321104
MEM25353233125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home MEM
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
AJ Green S 35 20 2 1
Kevin Porter Jr. S 33 16 8 5
Ryan Rollins 23 15 4 5
Kyle Kuzma S 30 15 8 2
Bobby Portis S 35 15 12 3
Myles Turner S 28 8 3 1
Gary Harris 17 8 3 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 3 3 0 0
Jericho Sims 19 2 5 0
Amir Coffey 7 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 30 24 9 1
Cam Spencer 26 19 5 5
Ja Morant S 25 17 4 10
Cedric Coward S 25 15 5 2
Jaylen Wells S 29 14 2 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 22 13 2 2
Santi Aldama S 30 12 7 3
GG Jackson 22 7 5 1
Christian Koloko 28 4 3 1
Javon Small 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Porter Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:43 Q1
"Kevin Porter Jr. makes running dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
11%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
3 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
4 Ja Morant MEM
9%
5 Santi Aldama MEM
9%
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
7 Bobby Portis MIL
8%
8 Cedric Coward MEM
8%
9 Myles Turner MIL
7%
10 AJ Green MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
33%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 23.2 5.4 8.2
2 Ja Morant MEM 17.5 3.8 8.5
3 Cam Spencer MEM 17.3 3.3 6.6
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 17.1 5.9 3.0
5 Ryan Rollins MIL 16.8 4.2 5.8
6 Santi Aldama MEM 16.7 6.1 3.4
7 Bobby Portis MIL 15.6 7.1 1.7
8 Kyle Kuzma MIL 15.2 5.2 2.9
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 15.2 3.9 2.2
10 Cedric Coward MEM 14.5 6.6 3.5
11 Myles Turner MIL 11.4 3.8 1.5
12 Jock Landale MEM 10.4 6.5 1.8
13 AJ Green MIL 10.0 2.9 2.5
14 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 9.6 2.5 4.0
15 Javon Small MEM 6.9 1.7 3.8
16 Jericho Sims MIL 6.7 6.4 1.3
17 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.3 3.0 4.6
18 GG Jackson MEM 5.0 2.7 0.7
19 Cole Anthony MIL 4.2 1.6 1.6
20 Gary Harris MIL 4.1 2.1 1.2
21 Christian Koloko MEM 2.9 3.1 0.9
22 Pete Nance MIL 2.7 1.3 0.5
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.6 1.3 1.2
24 Amir Coffey MIL 2.0 0.7 0.4
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.8 0.9 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.