NBA games

PHI @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
102–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI28243317102
CHI30193228109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home CHI
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 32 31 5 1
Tyrese Maxey S 40 27 5 8
Paul George S 35 15 11 5
VJ Edgecombe S 33 10 7 3
Dominick Barlow S 27 7 6 2
Jared McCain 17 6 3 0
Quentin Grimes 26 2 1 2
Andre Drummond 8 2 4 0
Jabari Walker 10 1 3 0
Adem Bona 8 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach Collins 19 15 5 1
Tre Jones 24 15 6 2
Coby White S 29 13 7 6
Josh Giddey S 33 12 6 11
Jalen Smith 22 12 8 3
Matas Buzelis S 20 10 8 0
Kevin Huerter 23 9 1 1
Ayo Dosunmu 24 8 3 4
Isaac Okoro S 18 8 1 2
Nikola Vucevic S 29 7 7 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:51 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
2 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
3 Coby White CHI
9%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
8%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
8%
6 Joel Embiid PHI
8%
7 Paul George PHI
8%
8 VJ Edgecombe PHI
8%
9 Dominick Barlow PHI
7%
10 Quentin Grimes PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
35%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.5 4.3 6.2
2 Joel Embiid PHI 24.6 7.2 3.4
3 Coby White CHI 22.1 3.9 5.3
4 Josh Giddey CHI 21.6 8.3 9.3
5 Paul George PHI 17.9 4.8 3.8
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.2 8.0 3.6
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI 17.2 4.8 3.5
8 Matas Buzelis CHI 15.8 4.8 1.9
9 Quentin Grimes PHI 14.3 4.2 5.2
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 12.8 3.0 2.6
11 Tre Jones CHI 12.5 2.7 5.1
12 Dominick Barlow PHI 10.6 6.0 1.6
13 Jared McCain PHI 9.4 3.4 2.9
14 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.2 2.8 1.3
15 Kevin Huerter CHI 8.9 2.8 1.9
16 Zach Collins CHI 8.5 4.7 1.5
17 Andre Drummond PHI 6.8 8.0 1.3
18 Jalen Smith CHI 6.5 4.8 1.3
19 Patrick Williams CHI 5.6 2.8 1.1
20 Jabari Walker PHI 5.5 4.0 0.8
21 Adem Bona PHI 5.4 4.0 0.7
22 Eric Gordon PHI 4.5 0.8 0.7
23 Justin Edwards PHI 4.2 1.6 1.2
24 Jevon Carter CHI 4.0 1.2 0.9
25 Dalen Terry CHI 3.6 2.1 1.4
26 Julian Phillips CHI 3.3 1.5 0.5
27 Johni Broome PHI 2.9 2.3 0.7
28 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.5 0.8 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.