NBA games

BOS @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
140–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS28473629140
IND39223031122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home IND
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 32 30 3 4
Payton Pritchard S 38 29 9 5
Sam Hauser 17 23 4 0
Derrick White S 33 21 5 6
Luka Garza 27 15 4 2
Neemias Queta S 21 8 7 3
Anfernee Simons 21 8 3 1
Baylor Scheierman 20 3 5 1
Jordan Walsh S 19 3 2 3
Hugo Gonzalez 12 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 30 18 4 8
T.J. McConnell 14 13 1 3
Bennedict Mathurin S 30 13 4 4
Jarace Walker 18 12 3 2
Ethan Thompson 26 11 4 6
Pascal Siakam S 28 11 6 1
Johnny Furphy 18 9 2 0
Jay Huff S 21 9 4 2
Micah Potter 18 9 1 0
Quenton Jackson S 16 6 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
3 Derrick White BOS
10%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
6 Payton Pritchard BOS
9%
7 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
8 Jordan Walsh BOS
8%
9 Jay Huff IND
8%
10 Josh Minott BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
33%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 31.2 7.6 6.2
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.6 5.8 3.3
3 Derrick White BOS 22.4 4.6 5.1
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 19.3 3.3 6.5
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.9 4.2 5.6
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.0 5.5 2.0
7 Neemias Queta BOS 11.8 8.3 1.4
8 Anfernee Simons BOS 11.4 2.5 1.7
9 Jordan Walsh BOS 10.0 5.7 1.1
10 Jay Huff IND 9.1 5.0 1.7
11 T.J. McConnell IND 8.5 2.9 4.4
12 Quenton Jackson IND 8.0 2.5 2.1
13 Sam Hauser BOS 6.7 3.6 1.2
14 Jarace Walker IND 6.7 3.4 1.2
15 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 6.4 4.7 0.9
16 Ethan Thompson IND 6.1 2.3 1.4
17 Luka Garza BOS 5.6 3.8 0.9
18 Josh Minott BOS 5.0 2.6 0.9
19 Johnny Furphy IND 4.6 2.1 0.7
20 Chris Boucher BOS 4.1 3.2 0.6
21 Micah Potter IND 3.4 1.9 0.7
22 Tony Bradley IND 2.9 1.6 0.5
23 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.8 1.6 0.8
24 Taelon Peter IND 2.5 1.1 0.8
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.4 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.