NBA games

TOR @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
117–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR32303817117
WSH35382936138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home WSH
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 33 29 6 2
Immanuel Quickley S 33 25 4 5
Ja'Kobe Walter 18 15 0 1
Scottie Barnes S 29 14 4 7
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 33 13 11 2
Ochai Agbaji S 26 8 3 0
Jamal Shead 19 6 0 4
Gradey Dick 18 5 4 3
A.J. Lawson 7 2 1 0
Jonathan Mogbo 11 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyshawn George S 28 23 6 3
Bilal Coulibaly S 26 21 8 1
CJ McCollum S 31 21 3 4
Alex Sarr S 24 15 3 2
Bub Carrington 22 15 4 4
Tre Johnson 20 12 1 3
Justin Champagnie 22 8 7 2
Will Riley 16 8 2 2
Marvin Bagley III 22 6 5 2
Khris Middleton S 19 6 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Khris Middleton · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Khris Middleton makes 18-foot driving floating jump shot (Alex Sarr assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
13%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
12%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
5 CJ McCollum WSH
10%
6 Kyshawn George WSH
9%
7 Khris Middleton WSH
9%
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
37%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 24.4 5.9 5.0
2 CJ McCollum WSH 21.1 4.1 4.2
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.8 8.6 6.0
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.9 4.1 6.8
5 Alex Sarr WSH 17.8 9.1 2.5
6 Marvin Bagley III WSH 14.6 7.3 2.1
7 Kyshawn George WSH 14.3 4.9 5.6
8 Bub Carrington WSH 13.6 3.9 4.5
9 Khris Middleton WSH 12.3 3.9 3.9
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 11.6 5.5 2.1
11 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.6 3.8 2.6
12 Tre Johnson WSH 9.4 2.8 1.5
13 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 9.1 3.5 1.4
14 Jamal Shead TOR 9.0 2.9 5.2
15 Justin Champagnie WSH 8.7 7.5 1.4
16 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 7.8 4.5 1.9
17 Ochai Agbaji TOR 6.6 3.2 1.3
18 Will Riley WSH 6.6 2.2 1.3
19 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.4 2.2 1.4
20 Gradey Dick TOR 5.8 1.8 0.9
21 Jamison Battle TOR 4.5 2.1 0.9
22 Jamir Watkins WSH 3.6 2.5 0.5
23 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.5 1.4 0.4
24 Malaki Branham WSH 3.1 1.8 1.0
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.9 0.6 0.4
26 Anthony Gill WSH 1.9 1.0 0.5
27 AJ Johnson WSH 1.8 0.9 0.6
28 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.7 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.