NBA games

CHA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
120–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA38193924120
ORL28202928105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home ORL
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 29 22 7 5
Kon Knueppel S 15 16 3 1
Miles Bridges S 35 16 11 5
Brandon Miller S 36 15 1 0
Tidjane Salaun 22 14 9 1
Collin Sexton 18 13 0 2
Moussa Diabate S 33 10 12 3
PJ Hall 9 7 4 0
Josh Green 12 6 1 0
Pat Connaughton 2 1 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Black S 36 24 3 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 28 16 8 1
Desmond Bane S 33 15 10 4
Jase Richardson 22 14 4 2
Paolo Banchero S 31 13 5 2
Tyus Jones S 20 8 4 3
Tristan da Silva 22 8 2 2
Jamal Cain 14 5 1 1
Jonathan Isaac 16 2 2 0
Jett Howard 3 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyus Jones · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Tyus Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
2 Kon Knueppel CHA
13%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
4 Anthony Black ORL
10%
5 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
6 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
7 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 LaMelo Ball CHA
8%
10 Tyus Jones ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
34%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kon Knueppel CHA 22.7 4.3 5.1
2 Desmond Bane ORL 22.5 4.6 5.2
3 Brandon Miller CHA 20.5 5.1 3.8
4 Paolo Banchero ORL 20.0 7.6 5.1
5 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.9 4.4 8.2
6 Miles Bridges CHA 19.5 5.8 4.8
7 Anthony Black ORL 18.3 6.7 5.1
8 Collin Sexton CHA 16.1 3.0 3.4
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.2 6.9 2.0
10 Sion James CHA 8.6 3.3 1.6
11 Tidjane Salaun CHA 8.2 3.6 1.2
12 Jase Richardson ORL 8.0 2.2 1.5
13 Jett Howard ORL 6.8 2.2 1.3
14 Tyus Jones ORL 6.5 1.5 3.0
15 Tre Mann CHA 6.4 2.7 1.8
16 Moussa Diabate CHA 6.0 7.2 1.2
17 Noah Penda ORL 6.0 5.1 1.4
18 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.2 2.7 1.2
19 Josh Green CHA 4.9 1.6 1.1
20 PJ Hall CHA 4.6 3.1 0.7
21 Jamal Cain ORL 4.0 1.7 0.7
22 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.6 2.9 0.6
23 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.4 1.8 0.7
24 Orlando Robinson ORL 2.5 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.