NBA games

MIA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
126–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA32312736126
ATL32193327111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home ATL
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 33 25 7 5
Pelle Larsson S 30 21 6 5
Andrew Wiggins S 32 18 8 3
Kel'el Ware S 33 16 13 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 28 16 5 3
Nikola Jovic 21 10 7 4
Kasparas Jakucionis 16 8 2 1
Dru Smith 19 6 3 1
Davion Mitchell S 29 6 1 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 32 30 2 6
Jalen Johnson S 38 24 9 10
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 32 15 4 3
Onyeka Okongwu S 35 12 8 4
Vit Krejci 22 11 4 0
Dyson Daniels S 36 8 6 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 20 5 0 0
Mouhamed Gueye 11 4 5 0
Asa Newell 12 2 3 0
Keaton Wallace 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Norman Powell makes 11-foot two point shot (Pelle Larsson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
2 Norman Powell MIA
11%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
4 Trae Young ATL
9%
5 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
7 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
7%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
48%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 27.8 11.6 10.3
2 Norman Powell MIA 23.7 4.3 4.1
3 Tyler Herro MIA 22.0 4.5 2.7
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 21.0 4.2 3.2
5 Trae Young ATL 21.0 2.9 9.0
6 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 18.5 5.2 2.6
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 18.4 4.6 4.1
8 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.0 10.7 2.9
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.7 7.4 4.2
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 16.6 6.7 5.4
11 Andrew Wiggins MIA 16.5 4.9 3.1
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.0 10.4 1.2
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.0 2.6 7.2
14 Vit Krejci ATL 10.4 2.8 1.6
15 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.1 3.5 2.1
16 Simone Fontecchio MIA 7.5 3.3 1.9
17 Dru Smith MIA 6.9 2.6 2.6
18 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.4 3.0 2.7
19 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.4 2.2 3.1
20 Luke Kennard ATL 6.2 2.3 1.8
21 Asa Newell ATL 6.1 2.4 1.1
22 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 6.0 1.7 2.1
23 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.0 2.8 0.7
24 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.9 2.4 0.5
25 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.7 1.4 2.1
26 Myron Gardner MIA 3.7 2.3 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.