NBA games

HOU @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
108–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU35232426108
LAC29343530128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home LAC
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 29 22 5 1
Amen Thompson S 35 19 9 5
Alperen Sengun S 28 19 11 7
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 16 1 1
Reed Sheppard 26 8 1 3
Jae'Sean Tate 14 7 3 3
Tari Eason 18 7 5 0
Aaron Holiday 16 3 0 1
Jeff Green 5 3 1 0
Steven Adams 14 2 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 37 41 8 5
James Harden S 35 29 4 6
Kobe Sanders 13 13 1 1
John Collins S 29 13 5 5
Kris Dunn S 26 11 4 2
Nicolas Batum 25 6 0 0
Brook Lopez S 27 5 6 4
Jordan Miller 4 4 1 0
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 15 3 2 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 19 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 10-foot turnaround jump shot (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
15%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
3 John Collins LAC
13%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
5 James Harden LAC
12%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
7 Kevin Durant HOU
9%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
9 Josh Okogie HOU
6%
10 Tari Eason HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
45%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 26.5 6.1 3.6
2 Kevin Durant HOU 25.2 5.5 5.2
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 25.1 8.6 6.4
4 James Harden LAC 24.3 4.1 7.9
5 Amen Thompson HOU 19.0 7.8 5.9
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.6 7.0 2.6
7 John Collins LAC 14.3 4.9 1.5
8 Reed Sheppard HOU 12.4 3.9 3.4
9 Tari Eason HOU 11.7 4.7 2.0
10 Kris Dunn LAC 10.5 3.2 3.4
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 10.0 2.6 2.8
12 Josh Okogie HOU 8.0 3.9 1.4
13 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.9 1.8 1.3
14 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.1 2.1 1.5
15 Steven Adams HOU 6.0 7.2 1.4
16 Jordan Miller LAC 5.9 2.7 1.0
17 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.8 2.4 1.1
18 Kobe Brown LAC 4.6 1.8 0.9
19 Brook Lopez LAC 4.5 1.8 0.7
20 Clint Capela HOU 4.4 4.8 0.6
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.4 1.7 0.8
22 Cam Christie LAC 2.4 1.4 0.3
23 Jeff Green HOU 1.9 0.6 0.3
24 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 1.9 1.2 0.2
25 JD Davison HOU 1.8 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.