NBA games

DET @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
136–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET37384021136
SAC24343930127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home SAC
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 29 24 4 4
Cade Cunningham S 39 23 7 14
Jalen Duren S 32 23 13 4
Ausar Thompson S 36 19 6 2
Isaiah Stewart 21 16 3 3
Duncan Robinson S 31 9 1 4
Javonte Green 18 9 2 0
Jaden Ivey 14 8 3 3
Caris LeVert 19 5 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 42 37 3 8
Russell Westbrook S 38 27 6 4
Precious Achiuwa S 27 15 12 3
Nique Clifford 25 14 2 0
Dennis Schroder 21 10 2 3
Malik Monk 14 9 1 1
Maxime Raynaud S 23 8 8 2
Dylan Cardwell 27 5 6 4
Keegan Murray S 20 2 1 1
Keon Ellis 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Precious Achiuwa · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Precious Achiuwa makes 5-foot two point shot (Keegan Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
12%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
4 Maxime Raynaud SAC
11%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
11%
6 Russell Westbrook SAC
10%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
8 Tobias Harris DET
9%
9 Precious Achiuwa SAC
8%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
23%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
29%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.3 6.5 9.1
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 19.0 4.1 3.6
3 Dennis Schroder SAC 17.2 3.9 6.0
4 Russell Westbrook SAC 16.9 6.7 8.0
5 Jalen Duren DET 16.6 11.1 1.7
6 Maxime Raynaud SAC 16.4 8.3 1.9
7 Keegan Murray SAC 14.7 6.7 1.8
8 Tobias Harris DET 13.5 4.9 2.5
9 Ausar Thompson DET 12.8 6.8 2.9
10 Malik Monk SAC 12.3 2.9 2.9
11 Duncan Robinson DET 11.6 3.2 2.1
12 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.6 6.2 1.2
13 Jaden Ivey DET 7.6 2.4 1.8
14 Caris LeVert DET 7.4 2.7 2.3
15 Precious Achiuwa SAC 6.5 4.7 1.0
16 Nique Clifford SAC 6.2 2.8 1.2
17 Javonte Green DET 5.7 2.1 1.0
18 Daniss Jenkins DET 5.7 2.2 1.9
19 Paul Reed DET 4.4 3.2 0.7
20 Keon Ellis SAC 4.3 1.7 1.0
21 Dylan Cardwell SAC 4.1 4.3 0.6
22 Dario Saric SAC 3.9 1.4 0.6
23 Marcus Sasser DET 3.4 0.9 1.7
24 Doug McDermott SAC 1.8 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.