NBA games

ORL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
110–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL25382621110
POR21293026106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home POR
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 36 23 4 5
Anthony Black S 33 22 7 6
Tyus Jones S 35 16 4 7
Wendell Carter Jr. S 31 14 7 1
Paolo Banchero S 36 12 6 3
Jonathan Isaac 17 9 2 0
Noah Penda 24 8 6 2
Jamal Cain 13 4 0 0
Jase Richardson 12 2 2 2
Jett Howard 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 37 25 6 8
Shaedon Sharpe S 27 22 3 2
Caleb Love 34 17 3 1
Kris Murray S 28 13 6 1
Toumani Camara S 40 10 6 4
Donovan Clingan S 34 8 14 1
Sidy Cissoko 15 5 1 1
Yang Hansen 8 4 2 2
Rayan Rupert 13 2 4 2
Duop Reath 5 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Black · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Anthony Black makes 27-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jerami Grant POR
11%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
11%
4 Anthony Black ORL
9%
5 Yang Hansen POR
8%
6 Deni Avdija POR
8%
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
10 Kris Murray POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
33%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 27.3 8.2 8.8
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 24.7 4.5 4.0
3 Desmond Bane ORL 24.3 4.9 5.1
4 Jerami Grant POR 23.1 5.0 3.7
5 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.9 7.8 5.3
6 Anthony Black ORL 18.9 6.7 5.0
7 Toumani Camara POR 14.3 4.8 3.4
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.0 7.6 2.1
9 Donovan Clingan POR 13.0 10.4 2.2
10 Sidy Cissoko POR 9.8 3.0 1.7
11 Robert Williams III POR 8.1 8.3 1.2
12 Kris Murray POR 7.9 4.2 1.5
13 Jett Howard ORL 7.8 2.4 1.3
14 Jase Richardson ORL 7.7 2.1 1.3
15 Caleb Love POR 6.9 1.8 1.8
16 Noah Penda ORL 5.7 5.0 1.3
17 Tyus Jones ORL 5.6 1.6 2.6
18 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.2 1.3 0.9
19 Jamal Cain ORL 4.1 1.9 0.6
20 Duop Reath POR 3.7 1.7 0.7
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.6 3.7 0.6
22 Rayan Rupert POR 3.2 1.5 0.7
23 Orlando Robinson ORL 2.7 1.4 0.5
24 Yang Hansen POR 2.3 1.7 0.7
25 Javonte Cooke POR 2.0 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.