NBA games

MEM @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
137–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM37324028137
UTAH31363427128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home UTAH
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Santi Aldama S 34 37 5 7
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 30 21 7 2
GG Jackson S 30 18 9 1
Jock Landale 21 17 8 1
Jaylen Wells S 32 12 1 4
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 20 11 1 3
Cam Spencer S 32 11 3 13
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 19 8 1 3
Christian Koloko 10 2 4 0
Javon Small 12 0 2 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Filipowski S 35 25 13 4
Keyonte George S 34 24 2 4
Taylor Hendricks 27 21 4 1
Ace Bailey S 29 17 4 0
Walter Clayton Jr. 15 10 1 2
Svi Mykhailiuk S 22 9 4 3
Isaiah Collier 26 8 3 9
Kevin Love S 29 6 6 3
Cody Williams 9 4 2 0
Brice Sensabaugh 15 4 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Santi Aldama · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Santi Aldama makes 14-foot jumper (Jaylen Wells assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
15%
2 Jaylen Wells MEM
15%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
15%
4 Ace Bailey UTAH
13%
5 Cedric Coward MEM
12%
6 Jock Landale MEM
11%
7 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
10%
8 Cam Spencer MEM
9%
9 Santi Aldama MEM
0%
10 GG Jackson MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
31%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 25.0 4.5 6.6
2 Cam Spencer MEM 18.2 3.4 6.8
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.1 5.7 3.2
4 Jaylen Wells MEM 15.8 4.3 2.2
5 Cedric Coward MEM 15.1 7.0 3.7
6 Santi Aldama MEM 14.5 6.6 3.2
7 Ace Bailey UTAH 12.4 3.5 1.7
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 12.3 7.0 2.0
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 10.3 3.0 4.3
10 Jock Landale MEM 10.0 6.6 1.9
11 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.3 2.8 1.7
12 Isaiah Collier UTAH 8.4 2.0 5.6
13 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.0 2.9 1.5
14 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 8.0 2.3 3.2
15 Kevin Love UTAH 7.5 5.2 1.1
16 Javon Small MEM 7.5 2.0 4.1
17 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.7 2.9 0.8
18 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 5.2 2.5 1.2
19 Kyle Anderson UTAH 4.9 2.2 2.4
20 GG Jackson MEM 4.6 2.4 0.7
21 Cody Williams UTAH 3.7 1.6 0.8
22 Christian Koloko MEM 3.3 3.4 1.0
23 Jahmai Mashack MEM 3.1 1.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.