NBA games

LAL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
108–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL26312922108
PHX29384520132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home PHX
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 26 23 2 6
Austin Reaves 22 17 2 2
Marcus Smart S 30 14 3 6
Jake LaRavia S 29 12 5 1
Nick Smith Jr. S 28 12 1 1
Deandre Ayton S 27 12 10 1
Adou Thiero 14 6 2 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 20 5 5 1
Dalton Knecht 14 3 3 0
Jaxson Hayes 5 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 24 25 0 0
Devin Booker S 27 21 2 11
Mark Williams S 21 18 9 2
Collin Gillespie S 28 16 4 8
Jamaree Bouyea 24 14 4 2
Royce O'Neale S 23 12 3 3
Jordan Goodwin 22 8 1 3
Rasheer Fleming 10 7 2 0
Oso Ighodaro 21 5 3 3
Ryan Dunn 28 4 7 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jake LaRavia · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Jake LaRavia makes 25-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Brooks PHX
14%
2 LeBron James LAL
12%
3 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
4 Devin Booker PHX
10%
5 Mark Williams PHX
9%
6 Jaxson Hayes LAL
8%
7 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
8 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
9 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
10 Jake LaRavia LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
28%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Austin Reaves LAL 25.4 5.4 5.1
2 Devin Booker PHX 24.1 4.5 6.7
3 LeBron James LAL 23.3 6.2 6.4
4 Dillon Brooks PHX 21.6 3.7 2.6
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 17.2 4.0 5.2
6 Deandre Ayton LAL 13.1 10.1 1.0
7 Mark Williams PHX 12.9 7.8 1.9
8 Marcus Smart LAL 11.7 3.4 2.3
9 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.1 4.6 3.6
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.9 3.7 2.1
11 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 7.3 2.1 1.8
12 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 7.0 1.5 1.2
13 Jake LaRavia LAL 6.9 4.2 1.6
14 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.8 5.4 2.0
15 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.6 3.9 2.3
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.3 4.6 0.9
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.5 4.9 1.2
18 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.2 1.8 0.7
19 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.5 1.9 0.7
20 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.6 1.2 0.5
21 Adou Thiero LAL 2.4 1.4 0.5
22 Nick Richards PHX 2.3 2.4 0.4
23 Bronny James LAL 2.2 0.8 1.0
24 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 1.6 1.0 0.4
25 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.5 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.