NBA games

OKC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
110–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC29312228110
SA31272943130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home SA
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 33 3 8
Jalen Williams S 32 17 6 8
Luguentz Dort S 26 15 2 0
Kenrich Williams 13 10 0 1
Isaiah Joe 16 8 4 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 26 8 12 0
Chet Holmgren S 27 7 3 1
Cason Wallace 25 4 2 0
Chris Youngblood 3 3 0 0
Aaron Wiggins 11 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 22 25 1 1
Stephon Castle S 28 24 0 3
Harrison Barnes S 26 20 1 0
Devin Vassell S 28 17 5 1
Victor Wembanyama 23 12 5 3
Luke Kornet S 26 8 5 3
De'Aaron Fox S 34 6 3 9
Dylan Harper 20 4 3 10
Julian Champagnie 22 4 10 0
Lindy Waters III 2 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes dunk (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
11%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
5 De'Aaron Fox SA
9%
6 Luke Kornet SA
8%
7 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
9 Devin Vassell SA
7%
10 Branden Carlson OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
29%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.9 4.8 6.9
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.5 11.1 3.8
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 21.0 4.3 6.1
4 Stephon Castle SA 20.1 5.9 6.9
5 Jalen Williams OKC 19.7 5.2 5.5
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.8 7.7 1.8
7 Devin Vassell SA 14.4 4.8 2.6
8 Dylan Harper SA 13.7 4.0 3.8
9 Harrison Barnes SA 12.2 3.3 2.2
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.6 9.5 2.8
11 Keldon Johnson SA 9.7 5.5 1.2
12 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.6 2.5 1.4
13 Julian Champagnie SA 9.2 4.7 1.6
14 Luke Kornet SA 9.1 7.4 1.5
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.6 2.8 1.5
16 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.5 3.4 1.3
17 Cason Wallace OKC 8.4 3.2 1.9
18 Branden Carlson OKC 7.0 3.0 1.1
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.1 2.7 1.7
20 Alex Caruso OKC 5.7 3.5 2.0
21 Kelly Olynyk SA 4.1 2.1 0.9
22 Jeremy Sochan SA 3.7 2.9 0.6
23 Chris Youngblood OKC 3.4 1.8 0.7
24 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 3.3 2.7 0.8
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.7 1.0 0.7
26 Carter Bryant SA 2.7 1.8 0.4
27 Lindy Waters III SA 2.1 0.9 0.3
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.5 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.