NBA games

NY @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
104–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY28242725104
MIN31272730115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MIN
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 35 40 13 1
Tyler Kolek S 31 20 11 8
Mikal Bridges S 38 15 3 0
Josh Hart S 42 12 15 8
Jordan Clarkson 30 10 1 1
Mohamed Diawara 10 3 0 0
Mitchell Robinson S 26 2 7 1
Ariel Hukporti 12 2 3 0
Tosan Evbuomwan 1 0 0 0
Kevin McCullar Jr. 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 38 2 2
Julius Randle S 33 25 6 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 32 11 2 8
Rudy Gobert S 38 11 16 2
Bones Hyland 25 9 3 4
Mike Conley S 30 8 1 2
Naz Reid 25 8 11 1
Jaylen Clark 14 5 1 3
Terrence Shannon Jr. 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 20-foot two point shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ariel Hukporti NY
18%
2 Julius Randle MIN
17%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
5 Josh Hart NY
12%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
8%
9 Mitchell Robinson NY
0%
10 Tyler Kolek NY
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
64%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
21%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.8 6.2 4.8
2 Julius Randle MIN 22.9 6.3 5.4
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.0 9.9 2.8
4 Mikal Bridges NY 18.4 4.8 4.0
5 Naz Reid MIN 16.3 6.4 3.5
6 Josh Hart NY 15.3 8.0 5.0
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 14.3 5.1 3.9
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.1 11.3 2.1
9 Jordan Clarkson NY 9.1 2.5 1.3
10 Bones Hyland MIN 7.2 1.8 2.3
11 Tyler Kolek NY 6.4 2.6 3.2
12 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.9 8.8 1.2
13 Mike Conley MIN 5.1 2.1 2.3
14 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.8 1.6 0.7
15 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.5 1.3 0.7
16 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 3.6 1.7 1.2
17 Joan Beringer MIN 3.4 2.0 0.5
18 Trey Jemison III NY 3.0 2.6 0.4
19 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.0 1.6 1.6
20 Leonard Miller MIN 2.5 1.0 0.5
21 Johnny Juzang MIN 2.5 1.1 0.4
22 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.4 1.2 0.6
23 Tosan Evbuomwan NY 2.1 0.6 0.3
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.7 2.4 0.4
25 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.