NBA games

DEN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
130–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN27294727130
DAL41253728131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home DAL
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 37 31 7 14
Nikola Jokic S 36 29 7 14
Tim Hardaway Jr. 29 23 2 1
Bruce Brown 26 13 7 3
Julian Strawther 12 8 2 0
Jonas Valanciunas 14 8 1 1
Cameron Johnson S 24 8 2 3
Spencer Jones S 26 6 4 2
Peyton Watson S 24 4 2 1
Jalen Pickett 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 40 33 9 9
Anthony Davis S 36 31 9 4
Naji Marshall S 32 15 4 3
Ryan Nembhard S 33 11 3 7
Jaden Hardy S 28 10 2 2
D'Angelo Russell 15 9 2 4
Brandon Williams 15 9 0 2
Caleb Martin 25 9 4 3
Daniel Gafford 17 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes alley oop layup (Ryan Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis DAL
14%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
13%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
4 Naji Marshall DAL
10%
5 Peyton Watson DEN
10%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
7 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
8 Ryan Nembhard DAL
7%
9 Cameron Johnson DEN
7%
10 Spencer Jones DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
18%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.2 11.5 10.5
2 Jamal Murray DEN 26.4 4.1 6.8
3 Cooper Flagg DAL 24.7 6.5 4.1
4 Anthony Davis DAL 21.5 11.2 3.5
5 P.J. Washington DAL 18.3 8.1 2.0
6 Naji Marshall DAL 17.3 4.6 3.6
7 Peyton Watson DEN 14.4 5.0 2.0
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 13.8 3.0 1.8
9 Cameron Johnson DEN 13.1 4.0 2.9
10 Ryan Nembhard DAL 12.1 2.8 7.1
11 Brandon Williams DAL 10.3 2.8 4.1
12 Bruce Brown DEN 10.2 4.5 2.7
13 Spencer Jones DEN 10.0 3.6 1.5
14 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 8.5 4.9 1.4
15 D'Angelo Russell DAL 8.4 1.9 3.1
16 Daniel Gafford DAL 6.5 6.1 1.3
17 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.1 2.3 1.9
18 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.0 1.4 0.9
19 Miles Kelly DAL 4.6 1.6 1.4
20 Julian Strawther DEN 3.8 1.6 0.7
21 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.1 1.3 0.7
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.9 1.9 0.6
23 Caleb Martin DAL 2.7 1.8 0.9
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.6 1.6 0.6
25 Curtis Jones DEN 2.5 0.6 0.7
26 Moussa Cisse DAL 2.1 2.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.