NBA games

TOR @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
112–91
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR21303130112
MIA1628232491

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MIA
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 36 27 8 4
Immanuel Quickley S 35 18 5 7
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 27 14 6 7
Brandon Ingram S 29 12 6 2
Jamison Battle 15 11 2 1
Collin Murray-Boyles 25 11 12 0
Jamal Shead 19 8 2 4
Ochai Agbaji S 21 5 5 1
Ja'Kobe Walter 20 4 3 2
Gradey Dick 12 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 36 21 2 2
Norman Powell S 35 17 6 6
Andrew Wiggins S 33 14 3 2
Dru Smith 17 10 2 2
Bam Adebayo S 34 9 12 3
Kasparas Jakucionis 28 7 2 0
Simone Fontecchio 9 5 3 1
Kel'el Ware S 21 5 9 0
Davion Mitchell S 27 3 1 2
Keshad Johnson 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
11%
5 Norman Powell MIA
11%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
7 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
10 Kel'el Ware MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
29%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 24.5 5.6 5.0
2 Norman Powell MIA 22.7 4.3 3.4
3 Tyler Herro MIA 21.0 4.6 2.5
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.9 8.2 5.6
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.5 10.7 2.3
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.0 3.7 7.0
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.4 4.7 3.7
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.6 4.9 3.0
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.7 9.9 1.2
10 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.1 2.7 7.0
11 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 10.9 5.6 1.6
12 Jamal Shead TOR 8.4 2.7 5.4
13 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 7.4 4.0 1.9
14 Simone Fontecchio MIA 7.1 3.2 1.8
15 Dru Smith MIA 6.8 2.7 2.6
16 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.3 2.4 1.2
17 Ochai Agbaji TOR 6.1 2.9 1.2
18 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.0 2.1 2.9
19 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.9 2.9 2.5
20 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 5.9 1.6 2.3
21 Gradey Dick TOR 5.7 1.8 0.8
22 Jamison Battle TOR 3.5 1.9 0.7
23 Myron Gardner MIA 3.3 2.4 0.5
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.2 2.4 0.4
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.4 1.0 0.6
26 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.5 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.