NBA games

MIL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
111–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL26332725111
IND2024242694

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home IND
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Porter Jr. S 38 24 6 5
Ryan Rollins 33 23 7 4
Kyle Kuzma S 35 15 7 2
Bobby Portis S 32 14 9 2
Myles Turner S 28 10 6 1
Jericho Sims 20 6 7 1
Gary Harris 16 5 2 1
Gary Trent Jr. 5 5 2 1
AJ Green S 26 4 2 3
Cole Anthony 1 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
T.J. McConnell 21 16 2 6
Pascal Siakam S 33 15 9 2
Andrew Nembhard S 33 14 3 6
Bennedict Mathurin S 34 13 6 1
Jay Huff S 21 9 7 3
Johnny Furphy 19 6 3 0
Garrison Mathews 11 6 2 0
Jarace Walker 17 4 2 0
Ethan Thompson S 26 3 5 1
James Wiseman 12 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bennedict Mathurin · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Bennedict Mathurin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
14%
2 Andrew Nembhard IND
13%
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND
12%
4 Bobby Portis MIL
11%
5 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
9%
6 Myles Turner MIL
9%
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
8 Jay Huff IND
8%
9 AJ Green MIL
7%
10 Ethan Thompson IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
34%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 23.9 6.1 3.7
2 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 22.6 5.0 7.5
3 Andrew Nembhard IND 19.7 3.2 6.7
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.1 5.7 2.3
5 Ryan Rollins MIL 15.5 4.2 5.8
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.5 6.1 3.3
7 Bobby Portis MIL 14.0 6.6 1.8
8 Myles Turner MIL 11.6 4.0 1.5
9 AJ Green MIL 10.6 3.1 2.5
10 Jay Huff IND 9.6 5.3 1.7
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.2 1.9 1.3
12 Quenton Jackson IND 9.0 2.8 2.2
13 T.J. McConnell IND 8.3 3.2 4.7
14 Jarace Walker IND 7.2 3.6 1.3
15 Jericho Sims MIL 7.1 6.1 1.3
16 Ethan Thompson IND 6.3 2.0 1.5
17 Garrison Mathews IND 5.8 1.7 1.1
18 James Wiseman IND 5.3 2.9 0.9
19 Johnny Furphy IND 5.1 2.4 0.8
20 Gary Harris MIL 4.5 2.3 1.4
21 Cole Anthony MIL 3.6 1.7 1.5
22 Taelon Peter IND 2.8 1.3 0.9
23 Tony Bradley IND 2.7 1.6 0.4
24 Pete Nance MIL 2.2 1.1 0.4
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.9 1.1 0.3
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.8 1.1 1.2
27 Amir Coffey MIL 1.5 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.