NBA games

NO @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
118141
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO22383127118
CLE32374131141

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home CLE
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson 21 26 5 1
Derik Queen S 25 21 7 5
Trey Murphy III S 26 14 3 5
Jeremiah Fears S 27 11 4 5
Saddiq Bey S 26 11 3 2
Bryce McGowens S 31 8 7 3
Jordan Hawkins 22 7 3 1
Yves Missi 13 7 2 2
Jose Alvarado 25 6 2 2
Micah Peavy 14 5 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 30 27 4 4
Sam Merrill S 26 22 6 7
Jaylon Tyson 25 18 6 2
Thomas Bryant 22 15 7 1
Jarrett Allen S 26 14 9 3
Craig Porter Jr. 22 12 8 8
Dean Wade S 25 11 5 4
Darius Garland S 29 10 1 8
De'Andre Hunter 24 10 2 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trey Murphy III · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot running jump shot (Saddiq Bey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jeremiah Fears NO
14%
2 Derik Queen NO
13%
3 Darius Garland CLE
13%
4 Saddiq Bey NO
12%
5 Jaylon Tyson CLE
11%
6 Trey Murphy III NO
11%
7 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
8 Donovan Mitchell CLE
7%
9 Dean Wade CLE
7%
10 Zion Williamson NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
32%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.8 4.3 6.4
2 Trey Murphy III NO 23.8 6.2 4.8
3 Zion Williamson NO 22.6 6.5 4.0
4 Darius Garland CLE 21.3 3.6 7.9
5 Saddiq Bey NO 19.3 6.9 2.6
6 Derik Queen NO 18.2 8.7 5.6
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE 16.7 6.5 2.8
8 Jeremiah Fears NO 16.4 4.3 4.3
9 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.1 7.8 2.3
10 De'Andre Hunter CLE 12.6 3.7 1.7
11 Sam Merrill CLE 11.8 2.5 2.5
12 Bryce McGowens NO 10.1 3.1 1.7
13 Jose Alvarado NO 9.6 2.9 4.0
14 Lonzo Ball CLE 7.4 4.6 4.6
15 Dean Wade CLE 7.4 4.2 1.8
16 Thomas Bryant CLE 6.7 3.7 0.9
17 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 6.7 3.8 1.2
18 Micah Peavy NO 6.2 2.6 1.3
19 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.6 3.9 1.2
20 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.5 2.1 1.7
21 Yves Missi NO 5.4 6.0 0.9
22 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.9 1.5 0.7
23 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.2 3.1 1.7
24 Kevon Looney NO 2.8 2.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.