NBA games

CHI @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
126–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI30253734126
ATL36323718123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home ATL
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 31 24 0 4
Nikola Vucevic S 31 21 10 4
Josh Giddey S 36 19 11 15
Matas Buzelis S 18 15 2 0
Zach Collins 18 10 7 2
Tre Jones 23 9 3 2
Kevin Huerter 27 9 7 1
Isaac Okoro S 22 8 2 1
Ayo Dosunmu 16 6 2 2
Jalen Smith 12 5 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 39 24 9 10
Trae Young S 31 22 1 15
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 34 21 1 2
Vit Krejci 29 19 3 2
Asa Newell 21 13 7 0
Onyeka Okongwu S 36 10 7 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 21 10 7 3
Luke Kennard 21 2 2 2
Keaton Wallace 9 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 11-foot jumper (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
2 Dyson Daniels ATL
13%
3 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
5 Coby White CHI
10%
6 Trae Young ATL
10%
7 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
8 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
10 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
55%
Jumper
18%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 29.0 11.7 10.6
2 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.4 4.6 3.7
3 Coby White CHI 22.9 4.2 5.4
4 Josh Giddey CHI 21.9 8.1 8.5
5 Trae Young ATL 20.1 2.8 8.8
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.3 7.7 4.4
7 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.0 7.7 3.7
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.0 6.6 5.6
9 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.2 5.4 2.2
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 14.5 3.2 3.1
11 Tre Jones CHI 13.1 2.6 5.3
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.4 3.2 1.9
13 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.1 3.1 1.3
14 Vit Krejci ATL 9.5 2.8 1.6
15 Kevin Huerter CHI 8.9 2.6 1.9
16 Zach Collins CHI 8.6 4.4 1.6
17 Jalen Smith CHI 6.9 5.0 1.1
18 Patrick Williams CHI 6.1 3.1 1.1
19 Luke Kennard ATL 6.1 2.2 1.9
20 Asa Newell ATL 5.2 1.8 1.1
21 Jevon Carter CHI 4.5 1.3 0.8
22 Dalen Terry CHI 4.1 2.2 1.4
23 Julian Phillips CHI 3.7 1.6 0.5
24 Caleb Houstan ATL 3.2 0.9 0.5
25 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.2 1.1 2.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.