NBA games

WSH @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
109–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH31342519109
CHA24383034126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CHA
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Khris Middleton S 22 16 1 1
Marvin Bagley III 21 15 3 1
CJ McCollum S 33 14 6 4
Bilal Coulibaly S 23 14 5 1
Tre Johnson 21 12 3 2
Justin Champagnie 19 10 9 0
Corey Kispert 13 9 1 3
Alex Sarr S 25 7 11 1
Bub Carrington 15 6 5 2
Malaki Branham 6 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 25 23 2 9
Brandon Miller S 30 20 4 4
Kon Knueppel S 28 19 3 2
Sion James 24 13 4 4
Collin Sexton 16 12 1 2
Moussa Diabate S 36 12 18 1
Tidjane Salaun 22 11 6 1
Miles Bridges S 34 10 9 9
Josh Green 11 3 2 2
Tre Mann 12 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bilal Coulibaly · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Bilal Coulibaly makes 25-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
3 CJ McCollum WSH
8%
4 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
5 LaMelo Ball CHA
8%
6 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
8%
7 Khris Middleton WSH
7%
8 Kyshawn George WSH
7%
9 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
24%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kon Knueppel CHA 23.1 4.6 5.7
2 Miles Bridges CHA 21.9 5.2 4.1
3 CJ McCollum WSH 21.1 3.6 4.1
4 Brandon Miller CHA 20.5 5.2 4.3
5 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.4 4.5 8.5
6 Alex Sarr WSH 19.8 8.6 2.9
7 Collin Sexton CHA 16.2 3.0 3.5
8 Kyshawn George WSH 14.8 4.9 5.9
9 Bub Carrington WSH 14.1 4.0 4.9
10 Marvin Bagley III WSH 13.9 7.2 2.2
11 Khris Middleton WSH 11.4 4.1 4.4
12 Tre Johnson WSH 10.4 2.9 1.6
13 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 10.2 3.9 1.5
14 Sion James CHA 8.5 3.9 1.7
15 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.3 3.4 2.7
16 Tidjane Salaun CHA 8.1 3.2 1.2
17 Justin Champagnie WSH 8.0 6.7 1.4
18 Tre Mann CHA 7.9 3.0 2.5
19 Corey Kispert WSH 7.6 2.3 1.3
20 Will Riley WSH 6.7 2.3 1.4
21 Moussa Diabate CHA 6.3 6.7 1.3
22 Liam McNeeley CHA 6.2 2.8 1.0
23 Josh Green CHA 5.9 2.0 1.2
24 Pat Connaughton CHA 4.7 2.5 0.9
25 Malaki Branham WSH 4.2 2.0 0.9
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.6 1.3 0.6
27 AJ Johnson WSH 1.5 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.