NBA games

DET @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
110–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET30313415110
POR26252724102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home POR
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 24 26 10 2
Ausar Thompson S 28 18 12 3
Duncan Robinson S 32 15 2 4
Cade Cunningham S 26 14 6 9
Tobias Harris S 33 12 4 4
Jaden Ivey 18 11 0 1
Javonte Green 24 6 5 1
Daniss Jenkins 14 5 1 3
Isaiah Stewart 21 3 4 0
Paul Reed 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 35 25 3 2
Deni Avdija S 39 18 8 9
Donovan Clingan S 34 17 10 2
Sidy Cissoko 27 16 3 3
Toumani Camara S 29 8 2 0
Robert Williams III 14 8 5 0
Kris Murray S 28 5 3 0
Caleb Love 18 5 3 4
Duop Reath 6 0 1 1
Rayan Rupert 11 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes 1-foot running dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
2 Jalen Duren DET
10%
3 Jerami Grant POR
9%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
8%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
6 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
7 Deni Avdija POR
8%
8 Tobias Harris DET
7%
9 Yang Hansen POR
7%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
57%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 28.6 7.7 8.2
2 Cade Cunningham DET 28.2 7.0 9.1
3 Jerami Grant POR 22.7 5.0 3.6
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.4 4.4 3.7
5 Jrue Holiday POR 20.3 4.7 7.9
6 Jalen Duren DET 16.0 11.1 1.7
7 Toumani Camara POR 14.0 5.1 3.5
8 Tobias Harris DET 13.8 4.8 2.3
9 Donovan Clingan POR 12.9 10.6 2.3
10 Ausar Thompson DET 11.6 6.5 2.9
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.2 6.5 1.4
12 Duncan Robinson DET 10.9 3.3 1.9
13 Caris LeVert DET 8.8 2.5 2.5
14 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.7 2.7 1.6
15 Kris Murray POR 7.2 4.2 1.4
16 Robert Williams III POR 7.2 7.8 1.2
17 Jaden Ivey DET 6.8 2.4 1.8
18 Caleb Love POR 6.2 1.4 1.4
19 Daniss Jenkins DET 5.2 2.1 1.9
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 1.2 0.8
21 Javonte Green DET 5.0 1.9 0.9
22 Paul Reed DET 4.9 3.4 1.0
23 Marcus Sasser DET 4.1 1.2 1.7
24 Duop Reath POR 3.7 1.6 0.6
25 Rayan Rupert POR 2.9 1.2 0.6
26 Yang Hansen POR 2.0 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.