NBA games

ORL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
97–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL3027261497
GS26323131120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home GS
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 34 21 12 7
Desmond Bane S 33 20 4 3
Anthony Black S 31 19 6 3
Jase Richardson 22 11 4 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 29 9 4 2
Tyus Jones S 26 7 3 4
Noah Penda 15 5 4 0
Goga Bitadze 14 2 5 0
Jett Howard 18 2 2 2
Jonathan Isaac 13 1 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 31 26 3 6
Jimmy Butler III S 30 21 3 4
Moses Moody S 32 20 3 3
Brandin Podziemski 28 16 4 5
Draymond Green S 18 9 7 2
Quinten Post S 25 8 12 4
Gary Payton II 10 7 4 5
Trayce Jackson-Davis 12 4 4 0
De'Anthony Melton 16 4 0 1
Buddy Hield 3 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Draymond Green makes layup (Quinten Post assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
19%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
14%
3 Jimmy Butler III GS
14%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
5 Anthony Black ORL
9%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
7 Quinten Post GS
7%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Moses Moody GS
6%
10 Tyus Jones ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
37%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
12%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 29.4 5.5 5.2
2 Desmond Bane ORL 22.6 4.8 4.9
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 21.4 5.9 4.9
4 Paolo Banchero ORL 20.9 7.7 4.6
5 Anthony Black ORL 18.6 6.1 4.7
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 14.1 4.4 4.1
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.4 7.8 1.9
8 Draymond Green GS 11.2 7.0 4.6
9 Quinten Post GS 10.4 4.8 1.9
10 Moses Moody GS 9.3 3.7 1.7
11 Pat Spencer GS 8.8 2.7 3.1
12 Jonathan Kuminga GS 8.5 5.3 1.9
13 Buddy Hield GS 8.3 3.5 1.5
14 Jett Howard ORL 7.6 2.3 1.1
15 Will Richard GS 7.4 3.3 1.0
16 De'Anthony Melton GS 7.1 2.0 2.1
17 Gary Payton II GS 6.0 3.3 2.1
18 Jase Richardson ORL 5.9 1.7 1.2
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.6 5.2 1.1
20 Gui Santos GS 5.5 2.8 1.3
21 Tyus Jones ORL 5.1 1.3 2.3
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.9 5.0 1.1
23 Noah Penda ORL 4.9 4.5 1.1
24 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.6 3.6 0.4
25 Jamal Cain ORL 2.8 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.