NBA games

MEM @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
103–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM28261930103
OKC31361735119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home OKC
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cedric Coward S 25 16 8 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 21 16 3 4
Cam Spencer S 35 14 5 8
Jaylen Wells S 33 12 4 0
Jock Landale S 26 11 10 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 11 3 1
Santi Aldama 25 9 7 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 17 8 1 0
GG Jackson 13 6 2 0
Jahmai Mashack 6 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 31 10 8
Jalen Williams S 34 24 6 2
Ajay Mitchell 22 16 9 2
Luguentz Dort S 30 13 4 0
Branden Carlson S 25 11 3 2
Kenrich Williams 25 11 6 3
Cason Wallace S 29 8 3 1
Isaiah Joe 20 5 2 1
Brooks Barnhizer 16 0 3 1
Chris Youngblood 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jock Landale · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Jock Landale makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
16%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
16%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
16%
4 Jaylen Wells MEM
15%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
14%
6 Cedric Coward MEM
13%
7 Cam Spencer MEM
9%
8 Santi Aldama MEM
0%
9 Jock Landale MEM
0%
10 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
31%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.6 4.5 7.1
2 Jalen Williams OKC 20.0 5.3 5.7
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.4 5.8 3.1
4 Cam Spencer MEM 18.0 3.0 5.9
5 Jaylen Wells MEM 15.1 4.0 1.8
6 Cedric Coward MEM 14.3 6.9 3.0
7 Santi Aldama MEM 14.2 6.2 3.0
8 Ajay Mitchell OKC 10.5 3.1 3.2
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.5 2.5 1.5
10 Jock Landale MEM 9.3 5.7 1.5
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 8.7 2.6 3.6
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.4 3.0 1.3
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.4 2.7 1.7
14 Cason Wallace OKC 8.3 3.0 2.1
15 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.0 3.4 4.6
16 Branden Carlson OKC 5.5 2.5 0.7
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.2 2.1 1.6
18 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.3 1.2 0.8
19 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 3.8 2.2 1.0
20 Christian Koloko MEM 3.0 3.1 0.9
21 GG Jackson MEM 2.8 1.5 0.3
22 Chris Youngblood OKC 1.9 1.1 0.4
23 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 1.8 1.9 0.4
24 Jahmai Mashack MEM 1.8 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.