NBA games

UTAH @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
112–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH15313828112
DEN40293432135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home DEN
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 36 27 8 1
Keyonte George S 34 20 8 7
Jusuf Nurkic S 35 17 14 6
Brice Sensabaugh 23 14 6 1
Ace Bailey S 24 10 3 0
Svi Mykhailiuk S 14 6 1 0
Walter Clayton Jr. 17 6 2 4
Taylor Hendricks 13 5 2 0
Kyle Filipowski 13 5 2 1
Isaiah Collier 24 2 2 9
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 27 27 6 5
Tim Hardaway Jr. 25 21 3 2
Cameron Johnson S 29 20 2 4
Peyton Watson S 28 20 3 2
Bruce Brown 27 15 5 1
Nikola Jokic S 29 14 13 13
Jonas Valanciunas 16 12 11 1
Spencer Jones S 20 3 1 3
Jalen Pickett 22 3 3 5
Julian Strawther 11 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 15-foot jumper (Spencer Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Keyonte George UTAH
11%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
3 Peyton Watson DEN
10%
4 Cameron Johnson DEN
9%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN
9%
7 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
8%
8 Ace Bailey UTAH
7%
9 Spencer Jones DEN
7%
10 Jamal Murray DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
38%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.5 11.4 11.0
2 Jamal Murray DEN 27.2 4.2 6.9
3 Keyonte George UTAH 26.2 4.3 6.9
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 23.6 7.8 2.6
5 Cameron Johnson DEN 14.7 4.4 2.7
6 Peyton Watson DEN 14.1 5.2 1.9
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 13.2 3.0 1.9
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 12.4 7.3 2.3
9 Ace Bailey UTAH 12.3 3.5 1.9
10 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 11.6 9.0 4.8
11 Spencer Jones DEN 10.5 3.6 1.5
12 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.5 2.9 2.0
13 Bruce Brown DEN 9.1 4.5 2.7
14 Isaiah Collier UTAH 9.1 2.1 5.9
15 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 8.4 4.6 1.5
16 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.3 2.8 1.5
17 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 7.4 2.2 3.2
18 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.5 2.8 0.9
19 Kyle Anderson UTAH 5.0 2.2 2.6
20 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.7 2.1 1.9
21 Cody Williams UTAH 3.9 1.5 0.9
22 Julian Strawther DEN 3.7 1.6 0.7
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.2 1.9 0.7
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.5 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.