NBA games

DAL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
113–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL34292426113
NO36212240119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home NO
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 35 35 17 2
Klay Thompson 31 20 5 1
Cooper Flagg S 35 16 6 6
Naji Marshall S 29 15 5 6
P.J. Washington S 28 8 8 0
Ryan Nembhard S 25 4 4 8
Brandon Williams 15 4 3 2
Caleb Martin 17 4 2 3
Jaden Hardy 11 4 2 1
Daniel Gafford 14 3 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson 25 24 9 3
Saddiq Bey S 35 19 7 1
Derik Queen S 34 19 10 6
Jordan Poole 27 14 2 1
Jeremiah Fears S 24 12 5 4
Trey Murphy III S 38 11 5 4
Herbert Jones S 22 9 2 4
Jose Alvarado 16 6 2 3
Karlo Matkovic 14 5 6 1
Micah Peavy 5 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes layup (Cooper Flagg assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cooper Flagg DAL
12%
2 Anthony Davis DAL
12%
3 Derik Queen NO
11%
4 Saddiq Bey NO
11%
5 Jeremiah Fears NO
11%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
7 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
8 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Ryan Nembhard DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
33%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 24.8 6.9 4.8
2 Trey Murphy III NO 23.9 6.2 4.8
3 Zion Williamson NO 22.7 6.2 4.1
4 Anthony Davis DAL 19.5 11.2 3.4
5 Jordan Poole NO 19.1 2.8 4.3
6 Saddiq Bey NO 19.1 6.9 2.7
7 P.J. Washington DAL 18.4 8.4 2.4
8 Jeremiah Fears NO 17.1 4.1 4.1
9 Naji Marshall DAL 16.9 4.6 3.1
10 Derik Queen NO 16.2 8.1 5.0
11 Ryan Nembhard DAL 13.3 2.7 6.4
12 Brandon Williams DAL 11.4 2.9 4.7
13 Herbert Jones NO 10.2 3.9 2.1
14 Klay Thompson DAL 10.1 2.8 1.4
15 Jose Alvarado NO 9.9 2.9 4.1
16 D'Angelo Russell DAL 8.4 2.0 3.1
17 Daniel Gafford DAL 7.6 6.4 1.5
18 Micah Peavy NO 6.7 2.7 1.4
19 Yves Missi NO 5.8 6.1 0.9
20 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.4 3.7 1.1
21 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.3 1.6 0.8
22 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.7 1.1 0.6
23 Miles Kelly DAL 4.5 1.6 1.3
24 Dwight Powell DAL 3.3 2.7 0.8
25 Kevon Looney NO 2.8 2.7 0.8
26 Caleb Martin DAL 1.5 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.