NBA games

IND @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
95–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND3526211395
BOS26173129103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home BOS
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 37 25 6 3
Andrew Nembhard S 36 20 2 7
Bennedict Mathurin S 37 16 9 0
Ethan Thompson S 34 13 4 4
Quenton Jackson 16 9 0 1
Jay Huff S 25 3 5 0
Johnny Furphy 23 3 5 2
Kam Jones 1 2 0 0
Jarace Walker 15 2 4 0
Garrison Mathews 1 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 33 31 9 2
Derrick White S 32 19 5 4
Payton Pritchard S 33 11 3 5
Anfernee Simons 17 11 0 1
Neemias Queta S 23 8 8 2
Hugo Gonzalez 37 6 11 1
Luka Garza 24 6 9 3
Sam Hauser 20 6 3 1
Baylor Scheierman 12 3 1 0
Josh Minott S 9 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
2 Derrick White BOS
13%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
4 Neemias Queta BOS
11%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
11%
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
7 Payton Pritchard BOS
9%
8 Quenton Jackson IND
7%
9 Jay Huff IND
7%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
32%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 31.5 7.0 6.8
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.5 6.3 3.4
3 Derrick White BOS 23.1 5.0 5.1
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.7 4.5 5.7
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 17.4 3.3 6.2
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.1 4.7 2.6
7 Anfernee Simons BOS 11.5 2.6 1.8
8 Neemias Queta BOS 11.3 7.9 1.3
9 Jay Huff IND 9.4 5.4 1.7
10 Quenton Jackson IND 8.4 2.6 2.5
11 Sam Hauser BOS 7.8 3.8 1.5
12 Jarace Walker IND 7.3 3.5 1.3
13 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.5 6.5 0.9
14 Garrison Mathews IND 6.5 1.8 1.0
15 Luka Garza BOS 6.4 3.9 0.9
16 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 6.0 3.9 0.7
17 Josh Minott BOS 5.8 3.0 0.9
18 Ethan Thompson IND 5.8 1.7 1.2
19 James Wiseman IND 5.2 2.9 0.8
20 Johnny Furphy IND 4.2 1.8 0.6
21 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.5 1.6 1.0
22 Chris Boucher BOS 2.8 2.5 0.4
23 Max Shulga BOS 2.7 1.4 0.7
24 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 2.5 0.9 0.6
25 Tony Bradley IND 2.5 1.5 0.4
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.3 1.2 0.4
27 Taelon Peter IND 1.5 1.0 0.7
28 Amari Williams BOS 1.4 1.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.