NBA games

CHA @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
132–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA36273237132
CLE33373435139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home CLE
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 24 23 4 9
Kon Knueppel S 31 20 1 2
Brandon Miller S 27 20 1 3
Miles Bridges S 30 17 6 4
Tre Mann 17 13 5 3
Josh Green 20 10 1 1
Liam McNeeley 6 7 1 1
Sion James 21 7 1 3
Moussa Diabate 28 5 14 2
Mason Plumlee S 10 5 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 29 30 4 5
Darius Garland S 30 27 4 10
De'Andre Hunter 26 27 5 1
Dean Wade S 28 14 7 2
Jarrett Allen S 20 12 5 2
Thomas Bryant 20 10 1 1
Lonzo Ball 24 6 2 7
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 13 5 0 0
Sam Merrill 26 4 1 5
Tyrese Proctor 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Darius Garland CLE
13%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Jaylon Tyson CLE
10%
5 Kon Knueppel CHA
10%
6 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
7 LaMelo Ball CHA
8%
8 Tyrese Proctor CLE
8%
9 Donovan Mitchell CLE
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
34%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 29.6 4.3 6.6
2 Kon Knueppel CHA 22.7 4.8 5.6
3 Miles Bridges CHA 22.2 5.5 4.1
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.4 4.6 8.3
5 Brandon Miller CHA 20.3 5.1 3.9
6 Darius Garland CLE 20.1 3.6 7.3
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE 16.3 6.5 2.3
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.9 7.7 2.2
9 Sam Merrill CLE 11.6 2.6 2.1
10 De'Andre Hunter CLE 11.2 3.4 1.5
11 Sion James CHA 8.5 3.9 1.6
12 Tidjane Salaun CHA 7.6 3.0 1.1
13 Tre Mann CHA 7.3 2.7 2.5
14 Lonzo Ball CLE 6.9 4.6 3.8
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.5 3.6 1.5
16 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 6.4 3.7 1.1
17 Thomas Bryant CLE 6.1 3.6 0.8
18 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.7 5.8 1.1
19 Josh Green CHA 5.3 2.1 1.1
20 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.1 2.0 1.6
21 Pat Connaughton CHA 4.4 2.3 0.8
22 Liam McNeeley CHA 4.1 2.1 0.7
23 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.6 3.1 1.7
24 Mason Plumlee CHA 3.2 3.0 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.