NBA games

HOU @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
124–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
HOU3137232112124
SAC3027253013125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home SAC
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 41 28 6 3
Kevin Durant S 48 24 10 8
Jabari Smith Jr. S 36 18 5 2
Amen Thompson S 45 18 9 8
Tari Eason 16 16 3 3
Reed Sheppard 34 15 2 4
Josh Okogie S 34 3 6 2
Clint Capela 12 2 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 40 27 4 9
Keegan Murray S 47 26 4 0
Dennis Schroder 32 24 7 10
Russell Westbrook S 29 21 13 4
Maxime Raynaud S 37 12 14 0
Nique Clifford 27 6 6 4
Precious Achiuwa S 18 5 1 2
Dylan Cardwell 21 2 4 0
Malik Monk 5 2 0 0
Keon Ellis 9 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Russell Westbrook · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Russell Westbrook makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
3 Maxime Raynaud SAC
11%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
5 Russell Westbrook SAC
10%
6 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
9 Precious Achiuwa SAC
8%
10 Josh Okogie HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
25%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 26.5 5.3 5.2
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 25.1 8.8 6.7
3 Amen Thompson HOU 20.0 8.8 5.6
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 17.7 3.9 2.9
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.7 7.3 2.7
6 Russell Westbrook SAC 16.1 6.4 7.9
7 Reed Sheppard HOU 15.1 4.7 3.8
8 Dennis Schroder SAC 15.0 3.7 5.4
9 Maxime Raynaud SAC 14.8 7.2 1.8
10 Keegan Murray SAC 14.5 7.0 1.9
11 Malik Monk SAC 13.3 3.1 2.7
12 Tari Eason HOU 11.8 4.8 2.2
13 Aaron Holiday HOU 8.7 2.1 1.5
14 Josh Okogie HOU 8.3 3.9 1.4
15 Precious Achiuwa SAC 8.0 5.4 1.1
16 Steven Adams HOU 6.7 7.9 1.6
17 Nique Clifford SAC 6.0 2.5 1.0
18 Dario Saric SAC 4.5 1.7 0.6
19 Keon Ellis SAC 4.4 1.6 0.9
20 Dylan Cardwell SAC 4.3 4.4 0.6
21 Clint Capela HOU 4.1 5.0 0.6
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.1 2.1 0.9
23 Jeff Green HOU 2.1 0.6 0.4
24 JD Davison HOU 2.0 0.6 0.7
25 Doug McDermott SAC 2.0 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.