NBA games

MIL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
100–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL29311525100
MIN23252728103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home MIN
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Porter Jr. S 37 24 10 9
Bobby Portis S 39 16 11 1
Ryan Rollins 23 16 4 5
Myles Turner S 38 13 5 4
Kyle Kuzma S 32 12 10 4
Jericho Sims 19 9 6 2
Gary Trent Jr. 18 6 2 0
AJ Green S 23 4 3 2
Gary Harris 11 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 24 4 6
Donte DiVincenzo S 33 18 5 4
Julius Randle S 32 12 7 2
Naz Reid 29 12 6 2
Terrence Shannon Jr. 12 11 0 0
Rudy Gobert S 39 11 18 3
Bones Hyland 19 9 0 4
Mike Conley 24 6 5 6
Jaylen Clark 6 0 0 0
Jaden McDaniels S 9 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bobby Portis · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:32 Q1
"Bobby Portis makes 22-foot jumper (Myles Turner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
4 Julius Randle MIN
11%
5 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
9%
6 Jericho Sims MIL
8%
7 Myles Turner MIL
8%
8 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
8%
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
18%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.7 6.0 4.8
2 Julius Randle MIN 23.8 6.4 6.2
3 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 20.8 4.2 7.2
4 Ryan Rollins MIL 17.1 4.2 5.8
5 Naz Reid MIN 16.6 6.5 3.7
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.8 4.7 3.6
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 14.5 4.8 4.4
8 Kyle Kuzma MIL 13.8 4.9 2.6
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.4 10.6 2.3
10 Bobby Portis MIL 13.1 5.8 1.7
11 Myles Turner MIL 12.1 3.8 1.5
12 AJ Green MIL 10.6 3.1 2.1
13 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.5 1.7 1.4
14 Bones Hyland MIN 7.7 1.9 2.2
15 Jericho Sims MIL 6.5 5.5 1.1
16 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.8 1.4 0.8
17 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.5 1.5 0.7
18 Gary Harris MIL 4.5 2.2 1.4
19 Mike Conley MIN 4.2 1.2 2.0
20 Cole Anthony MIL 3.7 1.6 1.5
21 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.7 1.9 1.7
22 Leonard Miller MIN 2.6 1.1 0.6
23 Johnny Juzang MIN 2.6 1.1 0.4
24 Joe Ingles MIN 2.5 0.9 1.6
25 Pete Nance MIL 2.1 0.9 0.3
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.8 0.9 0.2
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.8 1.0 1.1
28 Amir Coffey MIL 1.4 0.4 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.