NBA games

SA @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
124–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA26432926124
WSH28213727113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home WSH
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 33 27 7 6
Luke Kornet S 28 20 12 0
Stephon Castle S 32 18 5 11
Victor Wembanyama 22 14 12 2
Harrison Barnes S 26 14 1 2
Keldon Johnson 24 12 9 0
Devin Vassell S 31 11 6 1
Kelly Olynyk 9 4 4 0
Julian Champagnie 18 3 3 1
Dylan Harper 18 1 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bub Carrington S 40 21 5 4
Tre Johnson 25 19 7 1
Tristan Vukcevic S 27 18 9 0
CJ McCollum S 34 15 3 4
Kyshawn George S 33 14 4 7
Malaki Branham 16 9 4 0
Will Riley 17 8 1 1
Justin Champagnie S 21 5 3 1
Jamir Watkins 22 4 5 2
Anthony Gill 5 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luke Kornet · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Luke Kornet makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
13%
2 Stephon Castle SA
13%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
4 CJ McCollum WSH
11%
5 Kyshawn George WSH
11%
6 Luke Kornet SA
11%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
8 Devin Vassell SA
9%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
9%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
26%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.7 11.0 4.6
2 CJ McCollum WSH 23.6 4.0 4.2
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 22.2 4.0 6.5
4 Stephon Castle SA 20.9 5.9 7.4
5 Alex Sarr WSH 20.2 8.8 2.9
6 Devin Vassell SA 16.5 4.6 3.1
7 Dylan Harper SA 16.0 3.9 3.9
8 Kyshawn George WSH 15.4 5.9 6.0
9 Marvin Bagley III WSH 14.1 7.4 2.2
10 Bub Carrington WSH 13.3 3.8 5.0
11 Harrison Barnes SA 12.3 3.7 2.1
12 Keldon Johnson SA 11.2 5.8 1.5
13 Julian Champagnie SA 10.0 5.1 1.9
14 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 10.0 3.9 1.7
15 Tre Johnson WSH 9.8 3.0 1.7
16 Luke Kornet SA 9.0 7.3 1.8
17 Justin Champagnie WSH 8.2 7.4 1.4
18 Will Riley WSH 6.4 2.3 1.3
19 Jeremy Sochan SA 5.1 3.5 0.9
20 Kelly Olynyk SA 4.8 2.2 1.0
21 Jamir Watkins WSH 4.4 2.6 0.8
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 4.1 1.5 1.1
23 Carter Bryant SA 4.1 2.4 0.7
24 Lindy Waters III SA 3.5 1.5 0.7
25 Malaki Branham WSH 3.1 1.3 0.7
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.7 1.4 0.7
27 Anthony Gill WSH 1.9 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.