NBA games

MIA @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
125–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA37253726125
NY30363927132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home NY
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kel'el Ware S 35 28 19 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 34 23 0 5
Norman Powell S 35 22 4 3
Bam Adebayo S 34 14 9 0
Davion Mitchell S 31 13 2 8
Dru Smith 18 9 0 3
Simone Fontecchio 17 7 4 3
Andrew Wiggins S 24 7 5 4
Kasparas Jakucionis 12 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 38 47 3 8
Mikal Bridges S 40 24 2 4
OG Anunoby S 34 18 2 3
Josh Hart S 33 13 10 5
Jordan Clarkson 18 10 2 1
Mitchell Robinson 22 9 7 2
Tyler Kolek 22 6 4 3
Mohamed Diawara 4 3 0 0
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 2 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Davion Mitchell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Davion Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ariel Hukporti NY
11%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
8%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
7%
6 Josh Hart NY
7%
7 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
8 Norman Powell MIA
7%
9 OG Anunoby NY
7%
10 Andrew Wiggins MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
69%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
16%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.8 4.0 7.4
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.1 10.5 3.2
3 Norman Powell MIA 22.0 4.2 3.2
4 Tyler Herro MIA 20.4 4.5 2.4
5 Mikal Bridges NY 19.0 5.0 4.2
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.9 10.3 2.5
7 Josh Hart NY 16.9 8.6 5.5
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.7 4.7 2.7
9 OG Anunoby NY 15.1 5.0 2.1
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.3 4.9 3.6
11 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.1 8.8 1.0
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.5 3.0 7.3
13 Jordan Clarkson NY 10.1 2.7 1.6
14 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.9 3.2 1.9
15 Tyler Kolek NY 6.7 2.7 3.5
16 Dru Smith MIA 6.3 2.7 2.3
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.0 9.4 1.2
18 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 5.9 1.5 2.8
19 Myron Gardner MIA 4.2 2.6 0.6
20 Guerschon Yabusele NY 4.1 2.1 0.7
21 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.0 2.7 0.5
22 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.7 1.6 0.9
23 Vladislav Goldin MIA 2.6 1.6 0.5
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.5 3.0 0.7
25 Tosan Evbuomwan NY 2.4 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.