NBA games

TOR @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
81–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR1821261681
BKN2425182996

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home BKN
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 33 19 5 3
Immanuel Quickley S 32 17 5 10
Ja'Kobe Walter 23 9 3 0
Collin Murray-Boyles 19 8 5 2
Ochai Agbaji S 21 7 1 0
Scottie Barnes S 34 6 6 1
Jamison Battle 12 4 3 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 20 4 5 0
Gradey Dick 17 3 2 1
Jamal Shead 20 2 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 24 11 5
Noah Clowney S 33 19 9 2
Egor Demin S 30 16 5 3
Nic Claxton S 28 12 7 2
Nolan Traore 22 8 3 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 20 8 3 4
Terance Mann S 26 5 3 7
Ziaire Williams 14 2 1 0
Tyrese Martin 11 2 3 2
Danny Wolf 19 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terance Mann · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Terance Mann makes 26-foot three point jumper (Noah Clowney assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
13%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
7 Egor Demin BKN
8%
8 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
9 Terance Mann BKN
7%
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
13%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 25.4 6.7 3.7
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 24.6 5.6 5.2
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.0 8.4 6.0
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.4 3.6 6.5
5 Noah Clowney BKN 16.6 4.7 2.8
6 Nic Claxton BKN 13.5 8.2 4.4
7 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 11.4 5.5 1.5
8 Egor Demin BKN 11.1 3.2 3.5
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.2 7.8 2.6
10 Danny Wolf BKN 10.2 4.6 2.0
11 Tyrese Martin BKN 9.0 3.5 2.1
12 Terance Mann BKN 9.0 3.7 3.5
13 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.9 3.2 1.3
14 Jamal Shead TOR 8.4 2.7 4.9
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.0 5.7 2.0
16 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 6.5 3.6 1.8
17 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.1 2.6 1.2
18 Drake Powell BKN 6.1 1.9 1.9
19 Gradey Dick TOR 5.7 1.8 0.8
20 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.7 2.6 1.1
21 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.1 1.4 0.7
22 Jamison Battle TOR 3.4 1.7 0.6
23 Nolan Traore BKN 2.6 0.9 1.1
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.5 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.