NBA games

CHI @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
152–150
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI38453336152
ATL38354235150

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home ATL
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 29 28 3 0
Coby White S 31 21 2 5
Josh Giddey S 32 19 9 12
Kevin Huerter 21 16 1 5
Isaac Okoro S 19 14 1 1
Ayo Dosunmu 17 13 0 1
Nikola Vucevic S 30 13 5 6
Tre Jones 23 11 3 5
Zach Collins 16 10 7 2
Patrick Williams 9 4 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 36 36 11 9
Trae Young S 26 35 1 9
Onyeka Okongwu S 40 23 7 6
Vit Krejci 18 20 0 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 24 17 2 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 29 9 1 2
Dyson Daniels S 39 8 9 9
Mouhamed Gueye 13 2 2 0
Luke Kennard 9 0 1 2
Asa Newell 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Onyeka Okongwu · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Onyeka Okongwu makes dunk (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
12%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
10%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
7 Coby White CHI
9%
8 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
9 Trae Young ATL
9%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
51%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 27.0 11.7 10.4
2 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.9 4.7 3.6
3 Coby White CHI 23.1 4.0 5.6
4 Josh Giddey CHI 22.6 8.1 8.4
5 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 19.0 5.4 2.7
6 Trae Young ATL 18.8 2.9 8.8
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 18.0 6.5 5.6
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.4 7.8 4.3
9 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.0 8.8 3.7
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.1 3.5 3.2
11 Matas Buzelis CHI 14.9 5.5 2.5
12 Tre Jones CHI 13.0 2.7 5.2
13 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.5 3.2 1.9
14 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.8 3.3 1.4
15 Vit Krejci ATL 9.5 3.1 1.8
16 Kevin Huerter CHI 9.2 2.6 1.7
17 Zach Collins CHI 9.0 4.3 1.6
18 Jalen Smith CHI 8.3 5.2 1.2
19 Luke Kennard ATL 6.6 2.2 1.9
20 Patrick Williams CHI 6.4 3.3 1.2
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.0 2.8 0.8
22 Asa Newell ATL 5.3 1.8 1.1
23 Dalen Terry CHI 4.6 2.4 1.8
24 Jevon Carter CHI 4.4 1.2 0.9
25 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.2 1.6 2.5
26 Julian Phillips CHI 3.8 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.