NBA games

LAL @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
88–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL1524222788
LAC28262623103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home LAC
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 38 36 4 3
Luka Doncic S 20 12 5 2
Jake LaRavia S 37 12 11 6
Nick Smith Jr. 22 9 3 1
Jaxson Hayes S 31 8 5 2
Marcus Smart S 31 5 4 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 27 4 5 1
Dalton Knecht 13 2 4 0
Adou Thiero 6 0 1 0
Maxi Kleber 16 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 42 32 12 3
James Harden S 41 21 4 10
John Collins S 32 17 12 1
Brook Lopez 25 11 5 0
Kris Dunn S 32 8 6 3
Ivica Zubac S 11 5 2 1
Kobe Sanders 17 4 1 0
Nicolas Batum 20 3 4 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 18 2 2 4
Jordan Miller 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Harden · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"James Harden makes 25-foot three pointer (John Collins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 James Harden LAC
14%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
4 John Collins LAC
10%
5 LeBron James LAL
10%
6 Jaxson Hayes LAL
8%
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC
8%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
9 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
10 Luka Doncic LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
40%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.0 8.1 9.1
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.3 6.0 3.9
3 James Harden LAC 24.4 4.0 8.6
4 LeBron James LAL 20.8 6.0 7.4
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.0 10.6 3.1
6 John Collins LAC 14.7 4.5 1.7
7 Marcus Smart LAL 11.9 3.0 2.5
8 Kris Dunn LAC 11.7 3.1 3.8
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 11.6 3.0 3.4
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.5 3.7 1.0
11 Jordan Miller LAC 7.4 3.1 1.4
12 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.8 2.5 1.8
13 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 6.6 1.5 1.5
14 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.5 2.8 1.4
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.3 4.2 0.9
16 Jake LaRavia LAL 6.3 3.3 1.3
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.6 4.8 1.3
18 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.3 1.1 1.1
19 Kobe Brown LAC 5.3 2.2 1.2
20 Brook Lopez LAC 5.0 1.9 0.9
21 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.3 1.7 0.7
22 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.7 2.0 0.8
23 Cam Christie LAC 2.8 1.7 0.5
24 Adou Thiero LAL 2.4 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.