NBA games

POR @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
98–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2819252698
SAC2618252493

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home SAC
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 40 24 7 11
Shaedon Sharpe S 34 23 4 3
Toumani Camara S 37 15 6 2
Donovan Clingan S 30 14 14 0
Robert Williams III 18 10 9 1
Kris Murray S 36 9 3 0
Caleb Love 9 2 0 0
Sidy Cissoko 24 1 3 1
Rayan Rupert 8 0 0 0
Duop Reath 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder 31 21 5 6
Maxime Raynaud S 31 17 11 1
DeMar DeRozan S 35 15 5 1
Keegan Murray S 40 15 6 2
Nique Clifford 29 12 5 1
Russell Westbrook S 30 7 8 7
Dylan Cardwell 21 4 8 0
Precious Achiuwa S 10 2 2 0
Dario Saric 3 0 0 0
Keon Ellis 10 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Clingan · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:50 Q1
"Donovan Clingan makes 23-foot jumper (Deni Avdija assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
2 Jerami Grant POR
10%
3 Russell Westbrook SAC
10%
4 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
5 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
6 Deni Avdija POR
8%
7 Precious Achiuwa SAC
8%
8 Yang Hansen POR
8%
9 Shaedon Sharpe POR
8%
10 Maxime Raynaud SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
20%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 28.6 7.8 8.0
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.5 4.4 3.8
3 Jerami Grant POR 23.4 5.2 3.8
4 Jrue Holiday POR 20.6 4.9 8.5
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 19.7 3.8 3.5
6 Russell Westbrook SAC 17.3 6.3 8.9
7 Keegan Murray SAC 15.9 7.9 2.1
8 Malik Monk SAC 14.3 3.3 3.1
9 Toumani Camara POR 14.0 5.5 3.7
10 Dennis Schroder SAC 13.6 3.4 5.3
11 Maxime Raynaud SAC 13.5 6.7 1.8
12 Donovan Clingan POR 12.8 11.3 2.5
13 Precious Achiuwa SAC 9.3 6.2 1.3
14 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.8 2.8 1.7
15 Kris Murray POR 7.4 4.8 1.5
16 Robert Williams III POR 7.4 7.7 1.2
17 Caleb Love POR 7.4 1.9 1.9
18 Nique Clifford SAC 5.3 2.5 1.1
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 1.4 0.9
20 Dario Saric SAC 5.0 1.9 0.8
21 Keon Ellis SAC 5.0 1.8 1.1
22 Dylan Cardwell SAC 4.4 4.2 0.6
23 Duop Reath POR 3.9 1.9 0.7
24 Rayan Rupert POR 3.3 1.8 0.8
25 Doug McDermott SAC 2.4 0.7 0.5
26 Yang Hansen POR 2.3 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.