NBA games

ORL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
128–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
ORL3629322110128
UTAH382222369127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home UTAH
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 39 32 6 1
Paolo Banchero S 42 23 9 9
Anthony Black S 40 20 6 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 37 14 9 4
Noah Penda 24 13 12 4
Jase Richardson 23 10 1 3
Tyus Jones S 18 5 1 2
Jett Howard 15 5 2 2
Goga Bitadze 16 5 4 2
Jonathan Isaac 11 1 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 42 27 4 9
Svi Mykhailiuk S 31 23 3 2
Isaiah Collier 28 18 5 9
Kevin Love 32 16 16 1
Ace Bailey S 34 14 4 3
Brice Sensabaugh 25 12 4 2
Kyle Filipowski S 21 6 4 1
Taylor Hendricks 11 6 2 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 21 4 8 5
Walter Clayton Jr. 8 1 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keyonte George · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Keyonte George makes 4-foot dunk (Jusuf Nurkic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
2 Keyonte George UTAH
12%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
12%
4 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
10%
5 Anthony Black ORL
10%
6 Ace Bailey UTAH
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
8%
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
8%
10 Tyus Jones ORL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
32%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 27.0 4.4 6.8
2 Desmond Bane ORL 22.4 4.6 5.6
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 21.7 7.9 4.8
4 Anthony Black ORL 18.7 6.0 5.2
5 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 13.1 7.7 2.3
6 Ace Bailey UTAH 12.9 3.6 1.8
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.5 7.3 2.0
8 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 12.0 9.3 4.4
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.1 2.7 2.2
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.7 2.6 1.5
11 Jett Howard ORL 7.9 2.3 1.2
12 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 7.6 2.3 3.4
13 Isaiah Collier UTAH 7.5 2.0 5.4
14 Kevin Love UTAH 7.3 4.5 1.2
15 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 6.1 3.2 1.0
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.9 5.8 1.3
17 Tyus Jones ORL 5.6 1.4 3.0
18 Jase Richardson ORL 5.5 1.7 1.2
19 Noah Penda ORL 4.5 3.8 1.2
20 Jamal Cain ORL 3.4 1.2 0.4
21 Cody Williams UTAH 3.2 1.1 0.5
22 Jonathan Isaac ORL 2.9 3.3 0.3
23 Orlando Robinson ORL 2.8 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.