NBA games

PHX @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
116–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX44232029116
GS32322926119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home GS
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 34 38 1 5
Dillon Brooks S 32 22 5 3
Collin Gillespie S 35 16 5 4
Oso Ighodaro 30 10 7 2
Jordan Goodwin 26 9 1 1
Ryan Dunn 20 7 5 3
Jamaree Bouyea 16 5 2 2
Royce O'Neale S 30 5 3 2
Mark Williams S 18 4 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 28 10 6
Jimmy Butler III S 35 25 1 2
Will Richard 19 20 5 0
Brandin Podziemski 30 11 3 6
Quinten Post S 26 7 4 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 17 5 7 0
Gui Santos 7 5 3 0
Gary Payton II 19 5 8 3
Pat Spencer 10 4 1 1
Draymond Green S 8 4 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 9-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
14%
2 Dillon Brooks PHX
12%
3 Mark Williams PHX
11%
4 Jimmy Butler III GS
11%
5 Devin Booker PHX
10%
6 Draymond Green GS
9%
7 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
8 Moses Moody GS
7%
9 Quinten Post GS
7%
10 Collin Gillespie PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
40%
Jumper
15%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 27.7 5.2 5.3
2 Devin Booker PHX 22.4 4.8 6.0
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 22.1 3.7 2.2
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 22.0 6.4 5.2
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 17.3 3.9 4.6
6 Mark Williams PHX 14.1 8.2 1.7
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.3 4.4 3.6
8 Draymond Green GS 11.4 7.5 5.0
9 Quinten Post GS 11.1 4.8 2.1
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.3 5.1 3.0
11 Moses Moody GS 10.0 3.9 1.6
12 Jordan Goodwin PHX 10.0 3.9 1.9
13 Pat Spencer GS 9.1 3.1 3.9
14 Buddy Hield GS 8.9 3.7 1.7
15 De'Anthony Melton GS 7.8 1.9 1.7
16 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 7.1 2.0 1.5
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.5 4.9 1.8
18 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.5 4.0 1.8
19 Gary Payton II GS 6.0 2.8 2.1
20 Gui Santos GS 5.2 2.6 1.3
21 Will Richard GS 5.0 2.3 0.8
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.6 4.2 1.1
23 Nick Richards PHX 2.3 2.6 0.4
24 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.2 1.2 0.3
25 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 1.3 1.0 0.3
26 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.2 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.