NBA games

WSH @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
130–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH25284235130
MEM30382727122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MEM
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyshawn George S 39 28 7 7
CJ McCollum S 39 28 5 6
Alex Sarr S 26 18 11 2
Marvin Bagley III 22 16 6 3
Bub Carrington S 35 14 7 4
Tre Johnson 21 12 3 2
Khris Middleton S 22 6 3 4
Will Riley 11 4 1 0
Justin Champagnie 24 4 11 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Santi Aldama 36 37 10 2
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 22 8 3
Cam Spencer S 37 19 4 11
Cedric Coward S 31 14 6 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 28 11 2 5
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 17 8 2 5
Jock Landale 24 5 8 1
Jaylen Wells S 32 4 5 1
Brandon Clarke S 4 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bub Carrington · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Bub Carrington makes 13-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach Edey MEM
14%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
3 Jaylen Wells MEM
12%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
11%
5 Cedric Coward MEM
9%
6 CJ McCollum WSH
9%
7 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
8 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
9 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
24%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
19%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 CJ McCollum WSH 22.4 3.8 4.0
2 Alex Sarr WSH 21.2 8.2 3.0
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.5 5.5 3.5
4 Cam Spencer MEM 18.7 3.0 5.8
5 Jaylen Wells MEM 17.3 4.0 2.4
6 Zach Edey MEM 14.8 11.3 1.5
7 Cedric Coward MEM 13.9 6.9 3.1
8 Kyshawn George WSH 12.7 5.3 5.2
9 Santi Aldama MEM 12.6 5.8 3.4
10 Bub Carrington WSH 12.5 3.3 4.7
11 Marvin Bagley III WSH 12.4 7.1 1.9
12 Jock Landale MEM 11.8 6.1 1.8
13 Khris Middleton WSH 10.0 3.3 3.9
14 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 9.7 3.8 1.6
15 Tre Johnson WSH 9.7 2.9 1.6
16 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 8.8 2.5 3.8
17 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.0 3.6 5.2
18 Justin Champagnie WSH 7.5 6.7 1.3
19 Will Riley WSH 6.1 2.1 1.4
20 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 3.8 2.2 0.8
21 John Konchar MEM 3.5 2.4 1.2
22 Malaki Branham WSH 2.7 1.3 0.6
23 Anthony Gill WSH 1.6 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.