NBA games

CHA @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
86–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2718271486
DET33222433112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home DET
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 30 19 2 2
Kon Knueppel S 34 19 7 5
Brandon Miller S 30 14 7 0
LaMelo Ball S 23 8 1 6
Tidjane Salaun 18 8 3 0
Sion James 22 5 5 0
Josh Green 14 5 3 2
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 24 4 7 2
Tre Mann 18 3 4 3
Moussa Diabate 17 1 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 22 10 10
Jalen Duren S 25 19 11 2
Tobias Harris S 27 16 5 3
Duncan Robinson S 25 15 3 1
Ausar Thompson S 26 14 4 2
Ronald Holland II 23 9 9 1
Isaiah Stewart 24 8 11 0
Jaden Ivey 13 5 1 2
Caris LeVert 18 2 2 0
Javonte Green 14 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LaMelo Ball · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
2 LaMelo Ball CHA
13%
3 Jalen Duren DET
12%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
6 Kon Knueppel CHA
9%
7 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
8%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
9 Tobias Harris DET
8%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
18%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 29.2 6.8 9.4
2 Miles Bridges CHA 21.6 5.6 3.9
3 Kon Knueppel CHA 21.0 4.4 5.0
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.1 4.8 7.7
5 Brandon Miller CHA 19.8 4.6 3.7
6 Jalen Duren DET 15.5 10.4 1.7
7 Tobias Harris DET 13.1 4.3 2.1
8 Ausar Thompson DET 11.0 6.0 2.8
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.4 6.1 1.3
10 Duncan Robinson DET 10.4 3.2 1.8
11 Caris LeVert DET 10.2 2.5 2.7
12 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 9.3 6.0 1.0
13 Ronald Holland II DET 8.5 3.3 1.3
14 Sion James CHA 8.1 3.5 1.4
15 Tre Mann CHA 7.8 2.5 2.4
16 Jaden Ivey DET 7.1 2.5 1.6
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.4 2.7 1.0
18 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.9 5.9 1.1
19 Daniss Jenkins DET 5.3 2.0 1.8
20 Paul Reed DET 5.2 3.9 1.1
21 Josh Green CHA 5.1 1.7 0.8
22 Javonte Green DET 4.9 2.0 0.8
23 Marcus Sasser DET 4.1 1.2 1.9
24 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 3.6 1.5 1.0
25 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.0 1.6 0.5
26 Mason Plumlee CHA 2.9 2.7 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.