IND @ NO
NBA
Smoothie King Center
·Final
109–128
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 27 | 22 | 30 | 30 | 109 |
| NO | 44 | 20 | 34 | 30 | 128 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND
away
home
NO
51%
49%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam S | 31 | 22 | 5 | 3 |
| Johnny Furphy | 23 | 18 | 2 | 0 |
| T.J. McConnell | 18 | 16 | 4 | 8 |
| Jay Huff S | 21 | 9 | 6 | 2 |
| Andrew Nembhard S | 27 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
| Jarace Walker | 20 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| Ethan Thompson | 19 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
| Garrison Mathews | 11 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| James Wiseman | 15 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Isaiah Jackson | 12 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Saddiq Bey ·
3PT (3 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot running jump shot (Herbert Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Derik Queen
NO
12%
2
Saddiq Bey
NO
11%
3
Jeremiah Fears
NO
10%
4
Pascal Siakam
IND
10%
5
Trey Murphy III
NO
10%
6
Andrew Nembhard
IND
9%
7
Herbert Jones
NO
9%
8
James Wiseman
IND
8%
9
Bennedict Mathurin
IND
8%
10
Quenton Jackson
IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
33%
Layup
29%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 23.7 | 6.4 | 4.7 |
| 2 | Pascal Siakam | IND | 23.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 |
| 3 | Zion Williamson | NO | 21.5 | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| 4 | Andrew Nembhard | IND | 19.6 | 3.2 | 6.9 |
| 5 | Bennedict Mathurin | IND | 19.0 | 4.8 | 3.0 |
| 6 | Saddiq Bey | NO | 18.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 |
| 7 | Jordan Poole | NO | 18.6 | 2.6 | 3.8 |
| 8 | Jeremiah Fears | NO | 17.4 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| 9 | Derik Queen | NO | 14.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 |
| 10 | Jose Alvarado | NO | 11.0 | 3.2 | 3.9 |
| 11 | Herbert Jones | NO | 10.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| 12 | Jay Huff | IND | 10.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 |
| 13 | Quenton Jackson | IND | 9.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
| 14 | T.J. McConnell | IND | 8.8 | 3.6 | 4.8 |
| 15 | Jarace Walker | IND | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 |
| 16 | Isaiah Jackson | IND | 7.3 | 7.1 | 1.1 |
| 17 | Ethan Thompson | IND | 6.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| 18 | Garrison Mathews | IND | 5.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 19 | Yves Missi | NO | 5.9 | 6.8 | 1.1 |
| 20 | James Wiseman | IND | 5.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 |
| 21 | Karlo Matkovic | NO | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 |
| 22 | Micah Peavy | NO | 5.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 23 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 24 | Johnny Furphy | IND | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 25 | Tony Bradley | IND | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 26 | Kevon Looney | NO | 2.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.