NBA games

BOS @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
112–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS32173429112
TOR2031291696

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home TOR
81% 19%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard S 37 33 7 10
Derrick White S 36 15 5 7
Anfernee Simons 26 15 3 1
Neemias Queta S 22 14 5 0
Luka Garza 26 12 10 2
Hugo Gonzalez 28 10 10 0
Sam Hauser S 27 6 6 1
Josh Minott 17 5 4 0
Baylor Scheierman 8 2 1 1
Jordan Walsh S 13 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 35 24 4 7
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 30 24 5 1
Scottie Barnes S 33 12 9 6
Collin Murray-Boyles 23 9 6 4
Ja'Kobe Walter 15 7 0 0
Jamal Shead 24 6 3 2
Ochai Agbaji S 27 6 3 1
Gradey Dick 13 5 0 1
Immanuel Quickley S 32 3 4 7
Garrett Temple 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Neemias Queta · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Neemias Queta makes 7-foot floating jump shot (Payton Pritchard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
6 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
7 Derrick White BOS
8%
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
9 Jordan Walsh BOS
8%
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
36%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 30.4 6.9 6.7
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 24.0 6.0 4.2
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.5 8.5 5.4
4 Derrick White BOS 22.2 4.7 4.7
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 19.1 3.9 6.5
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.9 4.1 4.6
7 Jordan Walsh BOS 11.6 6.1 1.5
8 Neemias Queta BOS 11.5 8.2 1.4
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.2 7.8 2.6
10 Anfernee Simons BOS 9.9 2.1 1.8
11 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 9.8 5.3 1.3
12 Jamal Shead TOR 8.0 2.6 4.7
13 Sam Hauser BOS 7.3 3.4 1.5
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.6 2.8 1.3
15 Josh Minott BOS 5.9 3.0 1.2
16 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 5.9 3.3 1.4
17 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.7 3.0 0.8
18 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.6 2.6 1.0
19 Gradey Dick TOR 5.5 2.1 0.8
20 Luka Garza BOS 4.7 2.8 0.7
21 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.4 1.8 1.0
22 Jamison Battle TOR 3.8 1.9 0.7
23 Chris Boucher BOS 2.6 2.4 0.3
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.2 1.1 0.4
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.2 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.