NBA games

DAL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
114–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL33293517114
PHI38302330121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home PHI
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 34 24 15 2
Cooper Flagg S 37 24 4 3
Naji Marshall S 34 22 9 4
P.J. Washington S 30 15 8 2
Klay Thompson 18 10 1 1
Brandon Williams 21 10 2 5
Ryan Nembhard S 26 7 0 5
Daniel Gafford 14 2 4 0
Max Christie 14 0 0 1
D'Angelo Russell 11 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 41 38 2 4
VJ Edgecombe S 35 26 6 4
Dominick Barlow S 30 21 4 2
Jared McCain 30 12 5 5
Adem Bona 25 10 8 0
Andre Drummond S 23 6 12 3
Quentin Grimes S 25 6 2 7
Jabari Walker 18 2 8 0
Justin Edwards 14 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis DAL
15%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
14%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
12%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
11%
6 Dominick Barlow PHI
10%
7 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
8 Ryan Nembhard DAL
8%
9 Andre Drummond PHI
7%
10 Quentin Grimes PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
31%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 30.8 4.7 6.8
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 23.7 7.4 4.8
3 Anthony Davis DAL 20.1 11.9 3.5
4 P.J. Washington DAL 18.1 8.4 2.4
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI 17.2 5.0 3.8
6 Quentin Grimes PHI 15.8 4.5 5.0
7 Naji Marshall DAL 15.7 4.4 2.6
8 Ryan Nembhard DAL 12.6 3.0 6.5
9 Brandon Williams DAL 12.3 3.2 4.5
10 D'Angelo Russell DAL 11.2 2.9 3.7
11 Klay Thompson DAL 10.9 3.0 1.4
12 Max Christie DAL 10.4 3.2 1.5
13 Dominick Barlow PHI 10.4 6.6 1.8
14 Jared McCain PHI 9.1 2.9 2.4
15 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.7 7.3 1.6
16 Andre Drummond PHI 6.5 7.4 1.3
17 Jabari Walker PHI 6.0 3.7 0.9
18 Justin Edwards PHI 5.6 2.1 1.6
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.8 1.2 0.6
20 Adem Bona PHI 4.8 4.2 0.6
21 Dwight Powell DAL 3.3 2.7 0.8
22 Eric Gordon PHI 3.2 0.6 0.5
23 Moussa Cisse DAL 2.2 3.0 0.3
24 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.1 0.7 0.9
25 Caleb Martin DAL 1.3 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.