NBA games

HOU @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
115–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU26272933115
DEN29162135101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home DEN
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 40 31 6 5
Reed Sheppard 30 28 2 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 38 22 10 2
Amen Thompson S 38 16 4 6
Josh Okogie S 29 9 3 1
Alperen Sengun S 30 8 6 4
Steven Adams 25 1 12 0
Aaron Holiday 8 0 4 0
Jae'Sean Tate 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 29 25 7 5
Jamal Murray S 35 16 4 7
Bruce Brown 28 12 12 1
Jonas Valanciunas 16 10 1 1
Jalen Pickett 22 10 4 1
Spencer Jones S 28 9 4 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 30 8 2 0
Cameron Johnson S 32 6 4 3
Julian Strawther 5 2 0 1
Hunter Tyson 5 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 1-foot two point shot (Kevin Durant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
3 Kevin Durant HOU
12%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
6 Cameron Johnson DEN
9%
7 Bruce Brown DEN
9%
8 Spencer Jones DEN
8%
9 Josh Okogie HOU
7%
10 Jamal Murray DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
45%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.1 10.4 8.4
2 Jamal Murray DEN 25.9 4.1 6.4
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 25.5 8.7 7.1
4 Kevin Durant HOU 24.6 5.2 5.2
5 Amen Thompson HOU 20.3 8.6 6.2
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.0 6.7 2.7
7 Cameron Johnson DEN 15.5 4.4 2.3
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 13.5 2.9 1.6
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 12.6 4.1 3.6
10 Aaron Holiday HOU 10.3 2.1 1.7
11 Spencer Jones DEN 9.5 3.7 1.2
12 Bruce Brown DEN 8.5 3.6 2.6
13 Josh Okogie HOU 8.1 3.9 1.4
14 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.9 4.8 1.3
15 Steven Adams HOU 6.8 7.5 1.6
16 Clint Capela HOU 4.5 4.9 0.7
17 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.2 1.9 1.7
18 Julian Strawther DEN 3.5 1.7 0.6
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.2 2.2 0.5
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.1 1.3 0.6
21 Jeff Green HOU 2.1 0.6 0.4
22 JD Davison HOU 2.0 0.6 0.7
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.1 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.