NBA games

OKC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
107–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC33183422107
MIN23253529112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MIN
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 35 5 7
Jalen Williams S 32 17 7 2
Chet Holmgren S 25 14 5 0
Ajay Mitchell 23 14 2 2
Luguentz Dort S 29 11 4 2
Alex Caruso 23 7 12 1
Isaiah Joe 13 6 4 2
Cason Wallace 27 2 2 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 28 1 10 0
Kenrich Williams 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 41 26 12 3
Julius Randle S 32 19 8 5
Naz Reid 31 15 6 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 33 15 4 1
Jaden McDaniels S 37 13 4 2
Bones Hyland 16 13 3 3
Rudy Gobert S 33 9 14 1
Terrence Shannon Jr. 5 2 0 0
Rob Dillingham 12 0 6 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
15%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
3 Julius Randle MIN
9%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
8%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
9 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
7%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
53%
Jumper
18%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.1 4.1 6.6
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.1 5.4 4.3
3 Julius Randle MIN 22.2 6.6 5.8
4 Jalen Williams OKC 20.0 5.3 5.9
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.9 7.9 2.0
6 Naz Reid MIN 15.9 6.4 3.4
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.5 5.0 3.5
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.6 4.7 4.4
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.8 10.5 2.1
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 12.0 9.7 3.0
11 Ajay Mitchell OKC 11.5 3.2 3.2
12 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.0 2.7 1.6
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.0 3.0 1.2
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.0 2.8 1.7
15 Cason Wallace OKC 8.6 3.1 2.0
16 Branden Carlson OKC 6.4 2.8 0.8
17 Alex Caruso OKC 6.0 2.8 2.1
18 Bones Hyland MIN 6.0 1.7 2.0
19 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 5.3 1.4 0.8
20 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.3 1.2 0.8
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.3 1.9 1.3
22 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.4 1.4 1.6
23 Joe Ingles MIN 2.4 0.9 1.5
24 Leonard Miller MIN 2.2 1.1 0.5
25 Johnny Juzang MIN 2.2 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.