NBA games

SA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
126–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA32363424126
ATL1925282698

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home ATL
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama 21 26 12 3
Devin Vassell S 27 18 7 3
Stephon Castle S 24 17 2 7
Keldon Johnson 16 13 3 2
Lindy Waters III 17 8 1 0
De'Aaron Fox S 22 8 5 8
Luke Kornet S 18 8 9 0
Harrison Barnes S 22 7 4 0
Julian Champagnie 18 6 4 3
Dylan Harper 18 6 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 33 23 2 4
Jalen Johnson S 31 17 11 6
Dyson Daniels S 26 11 6 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 30 11 6 3
Luke Kennard 29 10 2 0
Asa Newell 20 9 0 1
Onyeka Okongwu S 31 7 8 5
Mouhamed Gueye 14 4 4 0
Keaton Wallace 8 4 1 3
Vit Krejci 18 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 16-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
14%
2 Stephon Castle SA
11%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
6 Trae Young ATL
10%
7 Luke Kornet SA
9%
8 Devin Vassell SA
8%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
10 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
38%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 28.0 11.6 10.0
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.6 10.7 4.3
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.2 4.8 3.5
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 22.9 3.6 6.6
5 Stephon Castle SA 21.0 6.0 7.8
6 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 18.8 5.4 2.7
7 Devin Vassell SA 18.7 4.3 3.0
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 18.7 7.8 3.9
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 18.1 6.9 6.1
10 Trae Young ATL 17.8 3.0 8.7
11 Dylan Harper SA 16.3 3.6 3.7
12 Harrison Barnes SA 12.6 3.6 2.7
13 Julian Champagnie SA 11.8 5.6 1.7
14 Keldon Johnson SA 11.1 6.2 1.5
15 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.6 3.4 1.6
16 Vit Krejci ATL 10.1 3.0 1.9
17 Luke Kornet SA 8.8 7.3 1.8
18 Luke Kennard ATL 6.3 2.1 2.4
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.1 2.9 0.8
20 Jeremy Sochan SA 5.7 3.9 1.1
21 Asa Newell ATL 5.3 1.9 1.1
22 Kelly Olynyk SA 4.1 1.9 0.9
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.8 1.5 1.1
24 Carter Bryant SA 3.6 2.4 0.7
25 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.1 1.2 1.8
26 Lindy Waters III SA 3.0 1.4 0.7
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.8 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.