NBA games

PHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
116–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI29283128116
NY29302820107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home NY
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 38 30 2 9
VJ Edgecombe S 38 23 3 4
Andre Drummond S 32 14 13 1
Jared McCain 21 12 3 1
Dominick Barlow S 18 11 4 1
Justin Edwards 14 8 1 0
Paul George S 33 7 6 4
Quentin Grimes 18 5 1 1
Adem Bona 15 3 2 0
Jabari Walker 14 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 22 6 9
Karl-Anthony Towns S 35 22 11 1
Mitchell Robinson 26 21 16 1
Mikal Bridges S 37 21 7 5
Jordan Clarkson 16 9 2 0
Josh Hart S 34 5 10 6
Guerschon Yabusele 4 3 0 1
OG Anunoby S 32 2 3 1
Tyler Kolek 15 2 2 2
Mohamed Diawara 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes two point shot (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ariel Hukporti NY
13%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
4 OG Anunoby NY
8%
5 Josh Hart NY
8%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI
8%
8 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
7%
9 Quentin Grimes PHI
7%
10 Dominick Barlow PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
69%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
16%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.9 4.3 6.3
2 Jalen Brunson NY 27.5 3.9 7.0
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.5 11.2 3.4
4 Josh Hart NY 18.1 8.9 5.7
5 Paul George PHI 17.7 4.6 3.5
6 Mikal Bridges NY 17.0 5.1 3.8
7 OG Anunoby NY 16.4 5.6 2.4
8 Quentin Grimes PHI 16.1 4.6 4.7
9 VJ Edgecombe PHI 15.6 5.3 3.4
10 Jordan Clarkson NY 9.8 2.9 1.7
11 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.2 6.0 1.2
12 Jared McCain PHI 8.2 2.5 2.1
13 Tyler Kolek NY 6.7 2.6 3.3
14 Andre Drummond PHI 5.3 7.6 0.9
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.9 8.2 1.2
16 Justin Edwards PHI 4.7 1.8 1.3
17 Jabari Walker PHI 4.4 3.0 0.6
18 Trey Jemison III NY 4.1 3.5 0.8
19 Guerschon Yabusele NY 4.0 2.4 0.7
20 Adem Bona PHI 3.4 3.1 0.3
21 Eric Gordon PHI 2.8 0.5 0.4
22 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.8 1.7 0.9
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.7 3.2 0.7
24 Tosan Evbuomwan NY 2.2 0.7 0.5
25 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.0 0.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.