NBA games

MIA @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
116–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA29293127116
BOS30283437129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home BOS
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kel'el Ware S 28 24 14 2
Norman Powell S 34 18 4 3
Kasparas Jakucionis S 36 17 6 4
Bam Adebayo S 36 16 10 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 36 14 8 4
Simone Fontecchio 30 12 2 4
Dru Smith 21 7 1 4
Myron Gardner 17 5 2 1
Keshad Johnson 1 3 0 0
Vladislav Goldin 1 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick White S 36 33 5 6
Jaylen Brown S 35 30 9 7
Sam Hauser 25 15 4 3
Anfernee Simons 29 14 4 1
Neemias Queta S 25 10 3 3
Hugo Gonzalez 29 10 8 0
Payton Pritchard S 27 9 4 4
Jordan Walsh S 22 6 7 1
Josh Minott 7 2 1 0
Baylor Scheierman 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Walsh · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Jordan Walsh makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
3 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
5 Norman Powell MIA
9%
6 Payton Pritchard BOS
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
9 Jordan Walsh BOS
8%
10 Jaylen Brown BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
37%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 30.6 7.0 7.2
2 Norman Powell MIA 22.1 4.0 3.0
3 Derrick White BOS 21.7 4.6 5.0
4 Tyler Herro MIA 20.8 4.5 2.5
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.3 4.3 5.4
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.7 10.0 2.3
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA 16.1 4.7 2.7
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 15.7 4.5 4.0
9 Jordan Walsh BOS 11.6 5.7 1.5
10 Neemias Queta BOS 11.1 8.4 1.3
11 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.8 3.0 7.5
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.7 9.5 1.1
13 Anfernee Simons BOS 10.4 2.1 2.0
14 Sam Hauser BOS 7.0 3.0 1.2
15 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.6 3.2 1.7
16 Josh Minott BOS 6.0 3.2 1.1
17 Dru Smith MIA 5.9 2.9 2.1
18 Luka Garza BOS 5.0 2.9 0.7
19 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 4.4 1.3 2.7
20 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.0 2.7 0.5
21 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.8 2.0 0.6
22 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.5 1.4 0.9
23 Myron Gardner MIA 3.0 2.1 0.4
24 Chris Boucher BOS 2.9 2.4 0.4
25 Vladislav Goldin MIA 2.8 1.9 0.5
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.4 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.