NBA games

SAC @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
133–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
SAC4020233218133
POR3627193319134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home POR
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 35 33 4 3
Maxime Raynaud S 37 29 11 2
Russell Westbrook S 35 20 3 10
Keegan Murray S 43 17 3 2
Keon Ellis 32 10 4 3
Nique Clifford 20 8 2 0
Dylan Cardwell 16 8 7 1
Dennis Schroder 22 6 2 6
Precious Achiuwa S 14 2 5 2
Dario Saric 10 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 42 35 5 5
Shaedon Sharpe S 35 26 4 4
Jerami Grant S 40 20 9 5
Donovan Clingan S 35 19 8 4
Toumani Camara S 35 17 8 5
Kris Murray 17 7 3 1
Caleb Love 9 5 1 1
Sidy Cissoko 29 3 0 3
Robert Williams III 17 2 6 2
Rayan Rupert 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Clingan · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Donovan Clingan makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Deni Avdija assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
14%
2 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
3 Jerami Grant POR
10%
4 Russell Westbrook SAC
10%
5 Deni Avdija POR
9%
6 Yang Hansen POR
8%
7 Dylan Cardwell SAC
8%
8 Shaedon Sharpe POR
8%
9 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
10 Maxime Raynaud SAC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
30%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 26.6 7.8 7.8
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 24.5 4.4 4.1
3 Jerami Grant POR 23.2 4.8 3.4
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 19.5 4.2 3.5
5 Russell Westbrook SAC 17.4 6.7 8.8
6 Keegan Murray SAC 16.0 7.8 1.8
7 Malik Monk SAC 14.5 3.4 3.3
8 Toumani Camara POR 13.3 5.0 3.2
9 Dennis Schroder SAC 13.2 3.3 4.7
10 Donovan Clingan POR 12.7 10.9 2.3
11 Maxime Raynaud SAC 10.5 5.8 1.4
12 Precious Achiuwa SAC 9.2 5.9 1.1
13 Caleb Love POR 7.7 1.8 1.8
14 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.7 2.7 1.5
15 Kris Murray POR 7.3 4.5 1.4
16 Robert Williams III POR 6.7 7.3 0.9
17 Blake Wesley POR 6.7 2.7 3.1
18 Dario Saric SAC 5.6 2.1 0.8
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.3 1.4 0.9
20 Nique Clifford SAC 4.1 2.2 0.9
21 Dylan Cardwell SAC 3.9 3.9 0.7
22 Keon Ellis SAC 3.6 1.3 0.7
23 Rayan Rupert POR 3.1 1.7 0.6
24 Duop Reath POR 3.0 1.3 0.4
25 Doug McDermott SAC 2.6 0.8 0.5
26 Yang Hansen POR 2.4 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.