NBA games

LAL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
143135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL32412941143
UTAH41372829135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home UTAH
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 40 45 11 14
LeBron James S 33 28 7 10
Marcus Smart S 28 17 4 1
Jaxson Hayes S 22 16 3 0
Rui Hachimura S 33 13 3 1
Jake LaRavia 28 12 6 4
Jarred Vanderbilt 25 7 11 1
Maxi Kleber 19 5 2 1
Adou Thiero 3 0 1 0
Dalton Knecht 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 39 34 4 8
Ace Bailey S 26 19 4 0
Isaiah Collier 28 18 0 13
Jusuf Nurkic S 32 15 8 7
Brice Sensabaugh 17 15 3 0
Svi Mykhailiuk S 17 11 1 0
Walter Clayton Jr. 14 8 1 1
Kyle Filipowski S 27 6 13 0
Kevin Love 16 5 2 1
Taylor Hendricks 23 4 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Filipowski · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Kyle Filipowski makes 4-foot dunk (Keyonte George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
16%
2 LeBron James LAL
12%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
11%
4 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
10%
5 Ace Bailey UTAH
9%
6 Marcus Smart LAL
9%
7 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
8%
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
8%
9 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
8%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
10%
Layup
60%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 36.0 8.4 9.9
2 Keyonte George UTAH 25.4 4.6 7.0
3 LeBron James LAL 21.2 6.1 7.5
4 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 12.7 6.8 2.4
5 Ace Bailey UTAH 12.3 3.5 2.0
6 Marcus Smart LAL 12.0 3.2 3.0
7 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 10.9 9.3 4.2
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.4 3.8 0.9
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.4 2.5 2.0
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 7.6 2.4 1.4
11 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 6.7 2.0 3.7
12 Kevin Love UTAH 6.3 4.2 1.1
13 Isaiah Collier UTAH 6.2 1.8 4.5
14 Kyle Anderson UTAH 5.9 2.5 3.0
15 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.6 1.3 1.2
16 Jake LaRavia LAL 5.4 2.9 1.0
17 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.3 2.8 0.9
18 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 5.3 1.1 1.1
19 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.2 4.4 0.8
20 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.4 1.4 0.6
21 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.3 3.9 1.0
22 Cody Williams UTAH 3.6 1.2 0.8
23 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.6 1.5 0.5
24 Adou Thiero LAL 1.8 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.