NBA games

GS @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
98–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS2924182798
PHX2620242999

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home PHX
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 34 31 3 3
Brandin Podziemski 28 18 2 2
Stephen Curry S 33 15 9 7
Quinten Post S 27 9 11 1
Draymond Green S 30 7 6 3
Gui Santos 14 6 5 2
Moses Moody S 30 5 8 3
Buddy Hield 10 3 0 0
Jonathan Kuminga 10 2 4 1
De'Anthony Melton 15 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 33 25 2 2
Dillon Brooks S 33 24 7 2
Collin Gillespie S 34 16 6 5
Jordan Goodwin 30 9 6 3
Royce O'Neale S 31 9 5 3
Mark Williams S 19 6 4 1
Ryan Dunn 17 4 2 2
Jamaree Bouyea 14 4 4 1
Oso Ighodaro 28 2 13 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Quinten Post · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Quinten Post makes 28-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
14%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
13%
3 Dillon Brooks PHX
12%
4 Mark Williams PHX
12%
5 Devin Booker PHX
9%
6 Draymond Green GS
9%
7 Quinten Post GS
6%
8 Moses Moody GS
6%
9 Jonathan Kuminga GS
6%
10 Will Richard GS
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
57%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
21%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.6 4.9 4.2
2 Devin Booker PHX 22.6 4.9 6.5
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 21.9 3.4 2.3
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 20.4 6.3 5.7
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 17.0 3.6 4.9
6 Mark Williams PHX 15.6 8.5 1.7
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.9 4.1 3.7
8 Draymond Green GS 10.9 7.0 4.7
9 Jordan Goodwin PHX 10.2 4.2 1.9
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.9 4.9 2.7
11 Quinten Post GS 9.6 4.1 1.9
12 Moses Moody GS 9.4 3.4 1.2
13 Jonathan Kuminga GS 8.6 4.8 2.1
14 De'Anthony Melton GS 8.1 1.7 1.5
15 Buddy Hield GS 8.0 3.5 1.5
16 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 6.0 1.5 1.4
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.9 3.9 2.1
18 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.8 3.8 1.8
19 Will Richard GS 4.9 2.3 0.8
20 Gary Payton II GS 4.7 2.9 1.7
21 Gui Santos GS 3.9 2.1 0.9
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.8 4.1 0.8
23 Nick Richards PHX 2.5 2.8 0.5
24 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.4 1.3 0.4
25 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 1.4 1.1 0.3
26 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.3 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.